Group of Six
Group of Six at Wazzu is a file of 3 stories. The newest of them: “Your Pac-12 Picks Guy Is Back and He's Got the Cougs”, “Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark”, and “Are blowouts getting worse? The Pac-12 mailbag crunches the numbers”. The Hotline's picks guy is back, and he's got the Cougs covering. Boise State owns September. The unofficial read for people who left Pullman and stayed Cougs. The list below is every Group of Six story on Wazzu, newest first.
Your Pac-12 Picks Guy Is Back and He's Got the Cougs
The Hotline's picks guy is back, and he's got the Cougs covering. That's the headline from this week's betting column, and for a WSU team sitting at 1-3, it's the kind of news you text a friend before the line moves. The man went 10-3-1 last week and is now 25-23-2 for the season. He's picking Washington State to cover the 2-point spread against Fresno State on Saturday night, and he's doing it because he thinks the Cougs played well enough against Arizona to trust the home side. That's a specific vote of confidence, not a homer pick. The column digs into the larger story of the rebuilt Pac-12, too. The conference's first month produced a 19-12-1 record against the spread. Five teams, Oregon State, Boise State, Fresno State, Washington State, and Colorado State, are a combined 15-4-1. That's not nothing. The betting public hasn't caught up to Oregon State's improvement, and the Cougs are quietly covering. The picks guy notes that while this success won't sway the CFP selection committee, a Pac-12 champion with no more than two losses should be well-positioned for a bid. If you want the full picture on WSU's running back situation heading into Saturday, our story on Kirby Vorhees being banged up for Fresno is worth your time. The Cougs need ball security, and the picks guy thinks they've got enough to cover. Go Cougs.
Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark
Boise State owns September. That much is clear. The Broncos are sitting at 3-1, holding the inside track for that Group of Six playoff berth, and they've got the resume equity to survive a slip in conference play. They averaged 237 rushing yards per game this month. That's almost identical to their 2024 playoff run. You don't need a spreadsheet to see that. The Cougs? We're a question mark. 1-3, and we haven't faced a single Group of Six team yet. That changes Saturday against Fresno State, and frankly, we need the answer. The Hotline's hunch is that what we saw against Arizona will be substandard. I hope they're wrong, but I'm not betting against the data. The rest of the league is sorting itself out. Oregon State looks like a real contender. Fresno State finishes fast, which is a problem for us. San Diego State is a mess. Colorado State can't stop anybody. If you want to know where the Cougs are headed, keep an eye on Trey Leckner's return. That story is worth a read. But the bigger question is whether this team can hang with the rest of the conference. We'll find out Saturday. Go Cougs.
Are blowouts getting worse? The Pac-12 mailbag crunches the numbers
Yes, blowouts are getting worse, and the numbers back it up. Through Week 3, the average point differential in non-conference games involving the big four conferences plus Notre Dame hit 27.8 points, the largest since at least 2000. That's more than double the 13.2-point margin from 2001. When you strip out Power Four vs. Power Four games and look only at the mismatches, the average jumps to 34.6 points. The trend line is climbing every year, and it started climbing right when NIL became law in 2021 and the transfer portal opened up. Money flows up. Talent follows. The Hotline doesn't let the Big Ten off the hook here. Twenty-eight percent of the conference isn't playing a single opponent from the ACC, Big 12, or SEC this season. Nebraska, Indiana, USC, Washington, and Penn State all filled their non-conference slots with Group of Six or FCS teams. That's weak sauce, and it's why Fox ended up airing Ohio State-Kent State in its Big Noon window. The sport is flattening at the top while thinning out everywhere else. The Hotline calls it a mushroom cloud shape. That feels right. If you want to see how this plays out in Pullman, read "One good half doesn't change what Duquesne was." It's the same story, just closer to home.