- Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and seasonlong performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
Boise State was the most important addition when the flattened, desperate Pac-12 reclaimed its future by adding five schools from the Mountain West in September 2024.
Two years and two weeks later, the Broncos are carrying the banner for the rebuilt conference regionally, domestically, internationally and cosmically.
They have emerged from September as the frontrunner for the College Football Playoff berth allocated to the top team in the Group of Six following the close loss to Oregon and convincing victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – two teams that also hold designs on the CFP.
The Broncos are the only team ranked in the AP Top 25 poll this week (No. 22) from outside the power conferences.
They are the top Group of Six team, by a wide margin, in both the Sagarin computer rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index.
And critically, the Broncos (3-1) have acquired enough resume equity that they can afford one loss in conference play and remain on track for the CFP – assuming, of course, that it’s the right loss: well played, close and to a quality opponent.
Key point: The playoff berth awaiting the top-ranked team in the Group of Six is not reserved for a conference champion; it goes to the best team from the collection of 70.
If the Broncos run the table in the Pac-12 and are 12-1 on CFP selection day (Dec. 6), they’re in.
(That was exactly the same resume they produced in 2024, and it delivered a No. 9 ranking in the selection committee’s final analysis).
If they are 11-2, with that strong nonconference resume and a single loss somewhere within the Pac-12, they would remain well positioned.
At that point, the Broncos would be compared to the zero-, one- or two-loss teams from the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC and Conference USA.
Their victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – and the narrow loss in Eugene – might be decisive in a resume showdown.
If those teams fare well in their respective leagues, and if Oregon finishes near the top of the Big Ten, the Broncos would compare favorably thanks to an indisputably impressive September.
To the power rankings …
1. Boise State (3-1)
Result: won at Western Michigan 32-7
Next up: vs. Utah State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The Broncos are averaging 237 yards per game rushing and 204 passing. If you’re curious, they averaged 240 and 226, respectively, two years ago during the playoff drive. Put another way: 51.5% of their total yards were on the ground in 2024 with Ashton Jeanty while 53.7% are on the ground this year with Dylan Riley. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (2-2)
Result: won at UTEP 33-7
Next up: at Colorado State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: As far as the Hotline is concerned, it’s a three-team race for the Pac-12 title, and Oregon State is one of those teams. Which is much more a credit to the Beavers than an indictment on the conference despite the low expectations for OSU (both here and elsewhere). (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (3-1)
Result: beat Rice 38-24
Next up: at Washington State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Slow starters, fast finishers: The Bulldogs outscored San Jose State 20-7 in the second half in a Week 3 victory and outscored Rice 24-7 on Saturday night. Not sure they want to lean into that trend in Pullman, however. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-2)
Result: lost at UTSA 59-45
Next up: vs. Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: A tough assignment in San Antonio was made substantially more difficult without injured quarterback Hauss Hejny (hamstring). But his backup, K’saan Farrar, who followed Jim Mora Jr. from UConn, was more than adequate. The problem, for the second consecutive week, was CSU’s defense. (Last week: 5)
5. Texas State (2-2)
Result: beat Incarnate Word 63-10
Next up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: Had the Bobcats prevented a game-winning touchdown run with 14 seconds remaining by UTSA a few weeks ago, their resume would look markedly different. As we have said many times, the entire feel of a 12-game season typically turns on three or four plays. (Last week: 6)
6. San Diego State (1-3)
Result: lost at Toledo 41-16
Next up: vs. Texas State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The lengthy list of woe in San Diego starts with the absence of defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, who’s now with Nebraska, and the poor quarterback play. Replacing elite coordinators is a tough deal, especially at the Group of Six level. But it was easy to see the quarterback issues coming after Jayden Denegal’s wobbly play last season. (Last week: 4)
7. Washington St. (1-3)
Result: lost to Arizona 34-24
Next up: vs. Fresno State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Because the Cougars have yet to face a Group of Six opponent, it’s difficult to know where they stand relative to the rest of the conference. (Other than Duquesne, their schedule has been arduous). This week offers needed perspective. Our hunch: The product revealed Saturday night will be substandard. (Last week: 7)
8. Utah State (1-3)
Result: beat Troy 21-10
Next up: at Boise State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: There are winnable games remaining for the Aggies. But Boise State is not one of them, even if the Broncos are in letdown mode after their big victory at Western Michigan. (Last week: 8)
- The Pac-12 is a mess, but Boise State and Oregon State are handling business
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and season-long performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
The Pac-12 dodged the mayhem that walloped conferences across the country the past two weekends.
As undefeated teams tumbled and title favorites flopped, Boise State and Oregon State held their positions as the frontrunners for the Pac-12 championship and a potential berth in the College Football Playoff.
One Saturday remains before the first CFP rankings are released Nov. 3. If the Broncos handle Texas State at home and the Beavers win at Fresno State – it’s their toughest assignment since conference play began – at least one, if not both, will receive consideration for a spot in the selection committee’s top 25.
For the moment, UT-San Antonio, from the American, is the highest-ranked team in ESPN’s strength-of-record (SOR), an important data point that mirrors the private version used by the selection committee.
SOR measures how a given team performs against its schedule compared to how an average Top 25 team would fare against the same schedule. It offers the committee a means of comparing teams with similar records but no head-to-head results.
UTSA is ranked 23rd in the SOR metric, one spot ahead of Boise State. The Roadrunners have one loss: by 24 points at Texas, while the Broncos’ lone defeat was by seven points at Oregon. The teams’ strength-of-schedule rankings are comparable.
(Notably, UTSA’s toughest remaining game, against North Texas, is the same day, Nov. 14, as the Boise State-Oregon State showdown.)
Only No. 34 New Mexico, the Mountain West frontrunner, and No. 39 James Madison, from the Sun Belt, are close to UTSA and Boise State in the SOR rankings.
Then comes No. 45 Louisiana Tech (Sun Belt), No. 47 North Texas (American) and No. 49 Liberty (Conference USA).
The Beavers are 50th, which reflects their weak collection of victories. Of course, that will change if they defeat Fresno State, Texas State and Boise State in the upcoming triple whammy.
Which scenario would best position the Pac-12 for the berth in the CFP reserved for the top team in the Group of Six?
It’s possible the conference would be well served by Oregon State winning out and Boise State losing only to the Beavers.
That would result in a matchup of 10-2 teams for the conference title, placing the winner, whether it’s the Broncos or Beavers, in prime position for the playoff bid.
Granted, the results in the American and Mountain West in coming weeks will shape the Group of Six landscape.
But given the lunacy across the country – not to mention the plot twist currently unfolding 45 miles south of Corvallis – the Pac-12 should consider itself fortunate.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (6-1/3-0)
Result: won at Washington State 31-10
Next up: vs. Texas State (7 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: Remember back in September, when we described the result at Oregon as a quality loss that would strengthen the Broncos’ resume in much the same fashion as the narrow defeat in Eugene in 2024? Never mind. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (5-2/3-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Fresno State (8 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Texas Tech and Houston did Oregon State no favors Saturday with their losses. If the Beavers end up in a resume showdown for a playoff berth with the best team in the American or Mountain West, they would benefit from claiming a close defeat to a Big 12 playoff-bound team. That scenario is less likely than it was a few days ago. (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (4-3/1-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Oregon State (8 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: The Bulldogs’ pass defense is statistically average compared to the other 137 FBS teams. There is nothing average about Oregon State’s aerial attack. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (3-4/1-2)
Result: beat San Diego State 56-49
Next up: at Utah State (12:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: As insane as it sounds, holding their opponent to 49 points constitutes an improvement for the Rams, who have allowed at least 56 points in each of the previous three games. (Last week: 6)
5. San Diego State (3-5/2-2)
Result: lost at Colorado State 56-49
Next up: vs. Washington State (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: That was a bad loss for SDSU’s bowl math. A very bad loss. Now, the Aztecs must handle Washington State and Utah State at home and either beat Boise State or win their Flex Saturday matchup, which will be on the road. (Last week: 4)
6. Texas State (4-3/2-1)
Result: beat Utah State 20-17
Next up: at Boise State (7 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: With Boise State and Oregon State on the road on consecutive Saturdays, the Bobcats should stay in Bend for the week rather than schlepping home and back. They will be far better prepared for whatever weather awaits them in Corvallis. (We’re joking, mostly.) (Last week: 5)
7. Utah State (2-5/1-2)
Result: lost at Texas State 20-17
Next up: vs. Colorado State (12:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: There goes Bronco Mendenhall, nearly pulling off a Bronco Mendenhall? Oh well, there will be more opportunities for the Aggies to rise up and disrupt the race in November. (Last week: 7)
8. Washington State (1-7/0-4)
Result: lost to Boise State 31-10
Next up: at San Diego State (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Given the level of competition in the new Pac-12, which is substantially worse than in the old Pac-12, this qualifies as one of the most disappointing seasons in the modern history of WSU football. There are problems galore, and coach Kirby Moore seemingly has no answers. (Last week: 8)
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- Oh look, WSU football found the cellar and the lights are off
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and season-long performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
Based on postseason impact, the most significant Week 6 result in the Pac-12 was Boise State’s victory over Fresno State.
After that: Oregon State’s wipeout of San Diego State.
Next on the list? It came outside the conference: UNLV’s escape against North Dakota State, which handed the Bison their first loss and reduced the likelihood of the Mountain West producing an undefeated champion.
The 2026 season has reached the midway point, which means the time for scoreboard watching is upon us.
For the Pac-12, the calculation is fairly simple:
Any zero- or one-loss teams from the Mountain West, Mid-American, American, Conference USA or Sun Belt are potential obstacles in pursuit of the berth in the College Football Playoff that has been reserved for the top team in the Group of Six.
There are no guarantees. Two losses could become the threshold by the end of Championship Weekend in early December.
But for now, our focus is the array of teams that could finish 13-0 or 12-1.
There are nine.
American: Memphis, UTSA and Florida Atlantic.
Conference USA: Liberty
Mid-American: none
Mountain West: Air Force, New Mexico and North Dakota State
Sun Belt: James Madison and Georgia State
Because of upcoming head-to-head matchups, that list will shrink. For example, New Mexico plays both NDSU and Air Force. Also, UTSA plays Florida Atlantic.
But by our calculations, it’s reasonable to expect a few teams outside the Pac-12 to end the season 13-0 or 12-1. Some combination of Memphis, Liberty, James Madison and New Mexico is the most likely.
Of course, the Pac-12 only has one team capable of clearing that bar: Boise State (5-1). A second defeat would cast the Broncos down to the realm of two-loss teams and narrow their path into the CFP.
Then again, it’s worth accounting for the unexpected. Depending on results across the Group of Six, it’s possible that a second loss for Boise State could become the optimal outcome for the Pac-12.
We’ll explore that scenario later this month.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (5-1/2-0)
Result: won at Fresno State 38-31
Next up: idle
Comment: The drive that produced the key field goal in the final minutes – and a two-score lead – covered 13 plays. All of them were runs. It was the most Boise State of all Boise State drives. And there was nothing Fresno State could do to stop it. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (4-2/2-0)
Result: beat San Diego State 66-14
Next up: vs. Washington State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: What if the Beavers played Boise State on a neutral field in eastern Oregon this week? (Burns seems like a nice location.) Our hunch is the oddsmakers would make the Broncos a slight favorite: 2.5 points or thereabouts. And that’s roughly one-fifth of what we would have expected prior to the season. (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (4-2/1-1)
Result: lost to Boise State 38-31
Next up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: All hope is not lost, but the Bulldogs must handle Oregon State on Halloween or risk getting boxed out of the conference championship game. And they probably can’t afford to lose elsewhere. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-3/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Texas State (Thursday at 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: With Jim Mora and the Rams idle ahead of the rare Thursday game – college football has largely abandoned the day because of the NFL – the Pac-12 was not nearly as interesting a place. (Last week: 4)
5. San Diego State (2-4/1-1)
Result: lost at Oregon State 66-14
Next up: vs. Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Was losing defensive coordinator Rob Aurich (to Nebraska) the most significant staff defection any of the eight programs suffered last winter? You could make that case with 66 pieces of evidence. (Last week: 5)
6. Texas State (2-3/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Thursday at 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: If the Bobcats lose this week, the bowl math will require them to win in either Boise or Corvallis or on the Flex Saturday at the end of the season. And they are scheduled for a road game. (Last week: 6)
7. Utah State (2-4/1-1)
Result: beat Washington State 17-16
Next up: idle
Comment: Bronco Mendenhall, drawing water from stone once again. With a few more wins, he might warrant consideration for Pac-12 Coach of the Year/non-JaMarcus Shephard division. (Last week: 8)
8. Washington State (1-5/0-2)
Result: lost at Utah State 17-16
Next up: at Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: We mentioned on social media that the Cougars seem destined for a 2-10 season and readers wondered where the second win would come. There’s enough mediocrity in the conference for WSU to stumble into another victory. Maybe. (Last week: 7)
