- Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and seasonlong performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
Boise State was the most important addition when the flattened, desperate Pac-12 reclaimed its future by adding five schools from the Mountain West in September 2024.
Two years and two weeks later, the Broncos are carrying the banner for the rebuilt conference regionally, domestically, internationally and cosmically.
They have emerged from September as the frontrunner for the College Football Playoff berth allocated to the top team in the Group of Six following the close loss to Oregon and convincing victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – two teams that also hold designs on the CFP.
The Broncos are the only team ranked in the AP Top 25 poll this week (No. 22) from outside the power conferences.
They are the top Group of Six team, by a wide margin, in both the Sagarin computer rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index.
And critically, the Broncos (3-1) have acquired enough resume equity that they can afford one loss in conference play and remain on track for the CFP – assuming, of course, that it’s the right loss: well played, close and to a quality opponent.
Key point: The playoff berth awaiting the top-ranked team in the Group of Six is not reserved for a conference champion; it goes to the best team from the collection of 70.
If the Broncos run the table in the Pac-12 and are 12-1 on CFP selection day (Dec. 6), they’re in.
(That was exactly the same resume they produced in 2024, and it delivered a No. 9 ranking in the selection committee’s final analysis).
If they are 11-2, with that strong nonconference resume and a single loss somewhere within the Pac-12, they would remain well positioned.
At that point, the Broncos would be compared to the zero-, one- or two-loss teams from the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC and Conference USA.
Their victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – and the narrow loss in Eugene – might be decisive in a resume showdown.
If those teams fare well in their respective leagues, and if Oregon finishes near the top of the Big Ten, the Broncos would compare favorably thanks to an indisputably impressive September.
To the power rankings …
1. Boise State (3-1)
Result: won at Western Michigan 32-7
Next up: vs. Utah State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The Broncos are averaging 237 yards per game rushing and 204 passing. If you’re curious, they averaged 240 and 226, respectively, two years ago during the playoff drive. Put another way: 51.5% of their total yards were on the ground in 2024 with Ashton Jeanty while 53.7% are on the ground this year with Dylan Riley. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (2-2)
Result: won at UTEP 33-7
Next up: at Colorado State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: As far as the Hotline is concerned, it’s a three-team race for the Pac-12 title, and Oregon State is one of those teams. Which is much more a credit to the Beavers than an indictment on the conference despite the low expectations for OSU (both here and elsewhere). (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (3-1)
Result: beat Rice 38-24
Next up: at Washington State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Slow starters, fast finishers: The Bulldogs outscored San Jose State 20-7 in the second half in a Week 3 victory and outscored Rice 24-7 on Saturday night. Not sure they want to lean into that trend in Pullman, however. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-2)
Result: lost at UTSA 59-45
Next up: vs. Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: A tough assignment in San Antonio was made substantially more difficult without injured quarterback Hauss Hejny (hamstring). But his backup, K’saan Farrar, who followed Jim Mora Jr. from UConn, was more than adequate. The problem, for the second consecutive week, was CSU’s defense. (Last week: 5)
5. Texas State (2-2)
Result: beat Incarnate Word 63-10
Next up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: Had the Bobcats prevented a game-winning touchdown run with 14 seconds remaining by UTSA a few weeks ago, their resume would look markedly different. As we have said many times, the entire feel of a 12-game season typically turns on three or four plays. (Last week: 6)
6. San Diego State (1-3)
Result: lost at Toledo 41-16
Next up: vs. Texas State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The lengthy list of woe in San Diego starts with the absence of defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, who’s now with Nebraska, and the poor quarterback play. Replacing elite coordinators is a tough deal, especially at the Group of Six level. But it was easy to see the quarterback issues coming after Jayden Denegal’s wobbly play last season. (Last week: 4)
7. Washington St. (1-3)
Result: lost to Arizona 34-24
Next up: vs. Fresno State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Because the Cougars have yet to face a Group of Six opponent, it’s difficult to know where they stand relative to the rest of the conference. (Other than Duquesne, their schedule has been arduous). This week offers needed perspective. Our hunch: The product revealed Saturday night will be substandard. (Last week: 7)
8. Utah State (1-3)
Result: beat Troy 21-10
Next up: at Boise State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: There are winnable games remaining for the Aggies. But Boise State is not one of them, even if the Broncos are in letdown mode after their big victory at Western Michigan. (Last week: 8)
- Pac-12 power rankings leave little doubt about the gap ahead of WSU
Editor’s note: The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday and consider both the latest results and seasonlong performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
One week into round-robin play, it’s abundantly clear: The Pac-12 is a three-team race.
Boise State, Oregon State and Fresno State are the class of the conference, and it doesn’t appear to be particularly close. The gap between the top three and bottom five feels like a chasm.
Washington State doesn’t have enough offense to secure a bowl berth, much less contend for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game.
Colorado State doesn’t have enough defense. (Nor do the Rams have a defensive coordinator at the moment.)
San Diego State? The Aztecs are lacking the most essential ingredient: healthy bodies.
Texas State doesn’t do anything well enough, which is doubly true when it comes to holding second-half leads.
Utah State does everything poorly.
That’s it. Remove those five flawed teams, and you have three remaining.
They aren’t created equal, not by any stretch: The Beavers lead with their offense, the Bulldogs with their defense and the Broncos with both, which explains their status as the frontrunner for both the Pac-12 title and a berth in the College Football Playoff.
But the beauty of the rebuilt Pac-12’s small size is the pure round-robin schedule. We don’t have to imagine how one contender would fare against another or delay judgment until the conference championship game.
In the Big 12, Utah and BYU don’t play Texas Tech.
In the SEC, Alabama and Georgia don’t play Texas.
In the Big Ten, Oregon doesn’t play Indiana.
But the Pac-12 doesn’t have that problem with eight teams and seven league games.
Everyone plays everyone, allowing us to identify the defining dates:
Oct. 10: Boise State at Fresno State
Oct. 31: Oregon State at Fresno State
Nov. 14: Oregon State at Boise State
Advantage to the Bulldogs, right? They host the other two while Oregon State is on the road for both.
Not necessarily.
Oregon State has played well away from home, with blowout victories at UTEP and Colorado State and a competitive loss at Houston.
Boise State can win anywhere.
Here are the victory projections for each team against the other two, according to the gambling and analytics website TeamRankings.com:
• Boise State: 66.3% at Fresno State and 77.4% against Oregon State
• Fresno State: 36.7% against Boise State and 59% against Oregon State
• Oregon State: 22.6% at Boise State and 41% at Fresno State
Our hunch: The Broncos win both, the Beavers split and the Bulldogs get swept.
As the late, great philosopher Bill Walton said often, “Offense wins championships.”
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (4-1/1-0)
Result: beat Utah State 37-18
Next up: at Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on the CW)
Comment: No team in the conference has better balance than the Broncos – not only offense-defense balance but also run-pass balance: They are averaging 227 rushing yards and 212 passing yards per game and likely will need every bit of both Saturday night against the Bulldogs, who allow just 16 points per game. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (3-2/1-0)
Result: won at Colorado State 56-26
Next up: vs. San Diego State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Receiver Jesse Legree falls into the same where-did-they-find-that-guy category as former Oregon State stars like Brandin Cooks and Jacquizz Rodgers. (The answer is Baltimore.) But as the heart of conference play ramps up and opponents develop a better sense for OSU’s scheme and formations, we wonder: How will the Beavers adjust to the adjustments? (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (4-1/1-0)
Result: won at Washington State 26-6
Next up: vs. Boise State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The Bulldogs were set up to fail in the season opener at USC, which had already played (San Jose State) and was far sharper. Since that 39-0 loss, Fresno State is allowing 10.8 points per game. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-3/0-1)
Result: lost to Oregon State 56-26
Next up: idle
Comment: It’s not often that a coordinator is stripped of his playcalling duties during a game. But if you had asked us to name the three Pac-12 head coaches most likely to make that type of in-game decision, Jim Mora Jr. would have been among our group. (Granted, relieving Tyson Summers of his responsibilities was a competitive imperative.) (Last week: 4)
5. San Diego State (2-3/1-0)
Result: beat Texas State 31-29
Next up: at Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: An indisputably impressive victory for the Aztecs considering their two tailbacks were injured, more than a dozen players were unavailable due to the mumps outbreak and quarterback Jayden Denegal has struggled under any and every condition this season. And yet, the Aztecs rallied from a 14-point deficit thanks to their defense and special teams. (Last week: 7)
6. Texas State (2-3/0-1)
Result: lost at San Diego State 31-29
Next up: idle
Comment: The Bobcats were outscored 52-21 after halftime in losses to UTSA and San Diego State, dropping the former by five points and the latter by two. Had they held on, the season would have an entirely different look and feel. But one of the defining features of mediocre teams is the inability to close out games. (Last week: 5)
7. Washington State (1-4/0-1)
Result: lost to Fresno State 26-6
Next up: at Utah State (Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: From here, it’s clear that first-year coach Kirby Moore, a former receiver and offensive coordinator, has no answers. (Or he has the answers and won’t implement them.) It’s also clear that if Moore doesn’t fix the offensive offense in the next 19 games, Washington State will be in the market for a new coach. Time is short when attempting to prove you belong in the Power Four. (Last week: 6)
8. Utah State (1-4/0-1)
Result: lost at Boise State 37-18
Next up: vs. Washington State (Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: One team will collect its second victory of the season Friday night in Logan, but the process could be tough on the eyes and set the sport back years. First team to 11 wins. (Last week: 8)
- Your Pac-12 Picks Guy Is Back and He's Got the Cougs
Welcome to the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 10-3-1 last week and am 25-23-2 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
If the adage is true – that good coaches win but great coaches cover – the rebuilt Pac-12 has several future Hall of Famers on its payroll.
The first month of the first season of the conference’s return to competition produced a 19-12-1 record against the point spread, according to TeamRankings.com, the wagering and analytics website.
But that mark includes a pair of .500 teams (Texas State and Utah State) and one complete flop: San Diego State’s struggles on the field (1-3) are exceeded only by the Aztecs’ 0-4 performance against the spread.
The other five teams are crushing the point spread as conference play begins this weekend.
Oregon State and first-year coach JaMarcus Shephard have covered in all four games – the betting public has not recognized OSU’s improvement – while Boise State, Fresno State and Washington State are all 3-1 and Colorado State is 2-1-1.
Those five teams are a combined 15-4-1.
The success is undoubtedly appreciated in some corners, but it won’t help the conference when the College Football Playoff selection committee determines which Group of Six team will receive the automatic bid.
That calculation will lean into the wins and losses of the teams involved in the race, in addition to a handful of performance metrics connected to the strength of the conference overall.
In that respect, the Pac-12 compares reasonably well to its primary competition.
It posted a 9-4 record against the other Group of Six leagues, including a 3-2 mark against the American and 3-0 against the Mountain West. And it stands as the highest-ranked Group of Six conference in the Sagarin computer ratings.
All of which means a Pac-12 champion with no more than two losses should be well positioned for a CFP bid.
To the picks …
Stanford (+131/2
) at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ACC Network
Comment: We picked the Cardinal last week to beat Georgia Tech outright (cha-CHING!) but do not like this situation one bit. The long trip, early kickoff, quality opponent and likelihood of rain add up to an easy call. Pick: Wake Forest
Michigan (-51/2
) at Minnesota
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: Based on how the teams fared last week, with Michigan losing at home to Iowa and Minnesota winning at Washington, the spread seems a tad high. But the Hotline won’t fall prey to recency bias. We expect the Wolverines to pull away late for the victory. Pick: Michigan
Cal (+21/2
) at UNLV
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The resistible force (Cal’s offense) meets the movable object (UNLV’s defense) in what could be a highly entertaining, although not well played, affair in Sin City. Both teams are desperate after splitting their first four games, but the Bears have better personnel. Pick: Cal
UTEP (+221/2
) at New Mexico
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on MW+
Comment: The Lobos are 4-0 against the point spread and have covered by an average of 161/2 points, according to TeamRankings.com. The trend is our friend. Pick: New Mexico
Oregon State (-61/2
) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: Perhaps the most interesting game of the opening week of conference play in the new Pac-12. If the Beavers truly belong on the top tier with Boise State, they will handle the defensively challenged Rams without much difficulty. For the moment, that’s exactly how we see it. Pick: Oregon State
BYU (-61/2
) at TCU
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Cougars had two weeks to prepare while the Horned Frogs were losing last weekend at UCF. Frankly, we’re surprised the spread isn’t closer to double digits. Bear Bachmeier should have his way with TCU’s pass defense. Pick: BYU
Washington (+91/2
) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Both teams are reeling, but we suspect the Trojans will have more difficulty recovering emotionally from yet another loss to Oregon. Also, this is strength on strength with USC’s offense matched against UW’s defense and vice versa. That suggests a close game throughout. Pick: Washington
Utah State (+20) at Boise State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: This feels like a letdown situation for the Broncos after their big win at Western Michigan. The Aggies don’t have enough offense to produce an upset, but they should hang around just long enough to cover that rather large number. Pick: Utah State
Fresno State (+2) at Washington State
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: This is tantamount to a must-win game for WSU (1-3) in order to make the bowl math work. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have started slowly in a handful of games and can’t afford to fall too far behind. The points are enticing, but the Cougars played well enough against Arizona to make us lean toward the home side. Pick: Washington State
Baylor (+4) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Sun Devils are home for the first time since the season opener, having lost at Texas A&M, beaten Kansas in London, then taken a week off to recover. As a result of the disruption, we expect a sluggish start and strong finish against an opponent that isn’t good enough to take full advantage of its chances. Pick: Arizona State
Texas State (-7) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The visitors opened as 41/2-point favorites, prompting a money flow strong enough to push the line to 7. And if that doesn’t frame the state of affairs for SDSU, nothing does. However, the Hotline will take the opportunity to zag while everyone else zigs. Pick: San Diego State
Cincinnati (+61/2
) at Arizona
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Bearcats are 4-0 but have yet to play a road game while the Wildcats are 3-1 with the loss coming on the road to a ranked opponent (BYU). Cincinnati has one of the best ground games in the country (270 yards per game). Arizona’s trouble against the run in Provo suggests a supreme challenge Saturday night – and the need for some fourth-quarter Noah Fifita heroics. Pick: Cincinnati
Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Michigan, Cal, New Mexico, Oregon State, BYU, USC, Boise State, Washington State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Arizona.
Five-star special: BYU. Nothing TCU has done thus far, particularly the loss to North Carolina, indicates the Horned Frogs can match the Cougars yard for yard and score for score for four quarters.
