You already know what it feels like to watch a September non-conference game that's over by the first TV timeout. The data now confirms it: blowouts are getting worse, and the gap between the haves and have-nots is widening at a pace that should worry anyone who actually likes competitive football. The Hotline's mailbag crunched the numbers, and the average margin when a Power Four team plays a Group of Six or FCS opponent has jumped to 34.6 points this season, up from 26.7 just four years ago. That's a 30 percent spike since NIL, the transfer portal, and revenue sharing became law. The sport is flattening at the top and thinning out everywhere else.
This matters for Cougs in a very direct way. Washington State just handled Duquesne in a home blowout, and while that win was fine, One good half doesn't change what Duquesne was says everything about the kind of opponent that gets put in front of you when you're not in the Big Ten or SEC. The Cougs are a question mark this season, and part of that question is whether they can stay competitive in a system that rewards consolidation of talent at the top. Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark gets at the same tension: Boise State is the king of the Group of Six hill right now, but the hill itself is getting steeper. The Hotline notes that 28 percent of the Big Ten won't play a single game against the ACC, Big 12, or SEC this season. Schools like Nebraska, Indiana, and Washington filled every non-conference slot with Group of Six or FCS opponents. That's not scheduling. That's hiding.
The practical takeaway for Cougs is this: the path to relevance runs straight through the Pac-12's decision to stay lean. The conference stopped at eight football members because it couldn't find a ninth that met the bar, but also because it wants to leave room for Cal or Stanford if the ACC implodes. The Hotline is blunt about it, Cal and Stanford don't want to be associated academically with the current Pac-12 membership. That stings, but it's honest. The question nobody can answer yet is whether the Cougs can be competitive in a world where the SEC and Big Ten are effectively running their own league. The Hotline's data shows the margin for error is shrinking. Every game counts more, and every blowout is a reminder that the sport is consolidating into two tiers. The Cougs need to prove they belong in the upper one. The schedule isn't going to do them any favors.