- Pac-12 bowl math still makes no sense, but here's how Cougs fit
The Pac-12 bowl selection process in 2026 treats the former conference as if it never imploded, grouping the 12 legacy schools together just as it did the previous two years. Meanwhile, the new Pac-12 teams have separate postseason arrangements. To simplify the situation, we have split the 18 teams into two groups: Pac-12 legacy bowls and Pac-12 new bowls. Washington State and Oregon State are part of the legacy bowl process with the exception of the Poinsettia Bowl.
So low was the bar for Oregon State this fall that its 3-2 record constitutes an upside surprise of the highest order.
Whether it’s the closer-than-expected losses or the resounding wins, the dazzling aerial game or coach JaMarcus Shephard’s unstoppable enthusiasm, the Beavers have produced a riveting narrative entering the midway point of the season.
They have also turned trigonometry into basic multiplication.
Oregon State’s bowl math is easy enough to compute: If they win three of the seven remaining games, the Beavers will participate in the postseason for the first time since 2023 and the fourth time in the past decade.
But which bowl?
That’s where the situation turns complicated because the Beavers, like fellow Pac-12 holdover Washington State, are eligible for two sets of games: The legacy Pac-12 bowls and the new Pac-12 bowls.
And for the College Football Playoff, of course.
That sentence might have read like fantasy in August but is worth brief mention here. If the Beavers somehow run the table, win the Pac-12 and finish 11-2, with competitive losses to Texas Tech and Houston and at least one victory over Boise State, they would receive consideration for the Group of Six berth in the CFP.
That scenario has a non-zero chance of materializing, but not by much.
According to projections on teamrankings.com, the wagering and analytics website, the likelihood of Oregon State winning out is about 2 percent.
But what if the Beavers finish 7-5 or 8-4? Where might they land? More significantly, would they be placed in the pool of legacy Pac-12 games or new Pac-12 games?
The key elements to the process are as follows:
• The legacy Pac-12 teams are eligible for (in order) the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, Poinsettia and Independence Bowls.
• The six new Pac-12 teams are eligible for the Poinsettia and Hawaii Bowls, plus a pool of ESPN games.
• Oregon State and Washington State will participate on the legacy Pac-12 side of all games except the Poinsettia pairing, where they are considered new Pac-12 teams.
• The Pac-12 legacy bowls select first, meaning the Beavers likely would land in a legacy game if they are 8-4 or 9-3. If they only win six or seven games, there’s a chance they would not be picked for the legacy games and move over to the Poinsettia or Hawaii Bowls.
• Don’t forget about the one-win-down rule, which allows any of the legacy bowls to pass one team in favor of another as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in record. The Holiday Bowl, for example, could pass on the Beavers at 8-4 in favor of Washington at 7-5 but not if the Huskies are 6-6.
That policy could work against the Beavers because of their small media market and low national profile.
It could work in favor of the Beavers if bowl executives prioritize ticket sales and Oregon State fans are considered likely to attend the game en masse.
Even if we knew Oregon State’s final record, projecting a landing spot would be exceedingly difficult because of the myriad factors involved.
Also, we don’t know how many, if any, legacy Pac-12 teams will jump into the CFP, thereby opening spots in the non-playoff games. If Utah and/or Oregon qualify, everyone below them in the pecking order moves up.
However, it’s reasonable to assume only a handful of legacy Pac-12 teams will finish with eight or more wins based on current records and upcoming schedules.
If the Beavers are 9-3 or 8-4, they would be well positioned for the Holiday or Sun Bowls.
Why not the Alamo or Las Vegas? Both could be options, but the one-win-down rule might prompt the bowls to select one of the Los Angeles schools.
If the Beavers are 7-5, the Sun or Independence Bowls would come into play.
Only at 6-6 would a berth in Poinsettia, as a new Pac-12 team, become the most realistic option.
In some ways, that might be the most interesting matchup. We would love to see Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree face Washington or Arizona.
To the bowl projections …
Pac-12 legacy bowls
College Football Playoff: Utah (Big 12 champion)
Comment: The Utes (4-0) could qualify for the CFP through the at-large pool if they finish with one loss. (It’s tough to envision a two-loss Big 12 team getting the requisite respect from the selection committee.) For the moment, we view Utah as the team to beat in the conference, particularly with Texas Tech looking vulnerable on a weekly basis.
College Football Playoff: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The Ducks (3-1) have eight games remaining, one loss in their pocket and a date in Columbus looming. At 10-2, an at-large bid should be forthcoming, although they might not be seeded high enough to host an opening-round game.
Alamo Bowl: UCLA
Comment: There is a good chance the UCLA-USC duel at the end of the season determines bowl destinations for both teams, with the winner receiving the more prestigious assignment. Given the upcoming schedules, the Bruins (4-0) have a better chance to sneak into the CFP, but the best non-playoff bowl is the most likely option at this point.
Las Vegas Bowl: USC
Comment: The schedule includes Wisconsin, Indiana and UCLA on the road and Ohio State at home. Those teams are a combined 17-2. Even if the Trojans (5-1) split that brutal quartet, they would finish with three losses. And the committee has never invited a 9-3 team to the playoff party.
Holiday Bowl: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers (3-2) would celebrate a bowl bid anywhere. Yuma, Elko, Yakima – sign them up! But San Diego against an ACC opponent? Corvallis would become a ghost town the last week of December.
Sun Bowl: Arizona
Comment: Don’t dismiss the Wildcats (4-1) as a title contender in the Big 12 race, particularly after they whacked Cincinnati. But if they don’t reach Arlington, options could be limited: The L.A. schools might have priority for the Alamo and Las Vegas Bowls (TV markets), and Arizona was in the Holiday last year.
Poinsettia Bowl: Washington
Comment: A victory over Iowa on Friday night is important but not critical for the bowl math given the spate of winnable games remaining. But the reeling Huskies (3-2) won’t be a popular pick on the bowl circuit. Executives always favor teams with energized, not depressed, fans.
Independence Bowl: Arizona State
Comment: The Hotline supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations and spit out a 6-6 record for the Sun Devils 5,001 times. Just kidding. We don’t have a supercomputer. But we do have eyes. And from what we saw of Arizona State (2-2) over the weekend, six wins looks right.
Non-qualifier: Cal
Comment: Had you mapped the worst possible scenario for a new coach in Berkeley, it would effectively match Tosh Lupoi’s opening month. The Bears (2-3) will be lucky to win five games, much less six or seven.
Non-qualifier: Colorado
Comment: The Buffaloes (2-3) are averaging 10.3 points per game against FBS opponents. Barring a court order that gives Shedeur Sanders additional eligibility, the trajectory won’t change enough for CU to win four of the remaining seven.
Non-qualifier: Stanford
Comment: We aren’t aware of an NCAA policy banning any team that loses to Wake Forest by 54 points from participating in the postseason. But it would make more sense than most of the organization’s rules. In our view , Stanford (2-3) is essentially playing for 2028.
Non-qualifier: Washington State
Comment: First-year coach Kirby Moore is taking over play-calling duties for the struggling Cougars (1-4), which essentially means he picked the wrong offensive coordinator and the wrong quarterback. At least Moore got the defense right with coordinator Trent Bray.
Pac-12 new bowls
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Comment: At this point, the Broncos (4-1) hold the pole position in the race for the Group of Six spot in the playoff, with New Mexico, James Madison and Toledo as the top competition. Yes, North Dakota State is undefeated, but we aren’t convinced the Bison warrant that level of respect. Their schedule has been pillowy soft.
Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State
Comment: A morsel of clarity will come to the Pac-12 race Saturday night when the Bulldogs (4-1) host Boise State in the first of three games matching the presumptive title contenders. And for what it’s worth, Fresno State also gets Oregon State at home.
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
Comment: The Aztecs (2-3) showed enough grit to beat Texas State, despite a roster torched by injury and illness (i.e., the mumps outbreak), that we have upgraded their forecast. But to make the bowl math work, they might need help from the conference’s Flex schedule. Five wins entering the final weekend is a distinct possibility.
Non-qualifier: Colorado State
Comment: If Jim Mora had changed defensive playcallers prior to the UTSA game, the Rams (2-3) might be on the high side of .500 right now and in prime position for a bowl berth. They have more than enough offense to secure six wins.
Non-qualifier: Texas State
Comment: The loss in San Diego, to a depleted opponent, could cost the Bobcats (2-3) a bowl bid. Of course, we could say the same about their come-from-ahead defeat to UTSA, as well.
Non-qualifier: Utah State
Comment: The Hotline saw a comment from Nevada coach Jeff Choate about the Mountain West being superior to the Pac-12. At the top, New Mexico could very well be a match for Boise State. But the middle and bottom tiers of the Pac-12, including Utah State (1-4), are far superior. Just check the scoreboard.
- We Got Picks, You Got Questions, and the Ducks Still Have Problems
Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 6-5-1 last week and am 15-20-1 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Oregon’s hotly anticipated duel with USC is one of two matchups of former Pac-12 teams Saturday in the late-afternoon TV window. The other will unfold 1,100 miles away on the Palouse, where Arizona visits Washington State in the first game of a home-and-home series.
The feline affair serves multiple purposes, allowing the Cougars to host a power conference opponent familiar to their fans and offering the Wildcats the chance to satisfy a Big 12 scheduling requirement.
The conference’s media rights agreement with ESPN and Fox stipulates that each team must play 10 games annually against Power Four opponents: nine in conference, one out of conference.
Because Arizona and WSU agreed to their series before the former officially left the Pac-12 for the Big 12 in August 2024, the Cougars qualify as a Power Four opponent. (The same standard applies to Oregon State, which faced Texas Tech and Houston earlier this season.)
But like so much else about the sport, the future of scheduling agreements between former Pac-12 schools now in different leagues is uncertain.
UCLA is under contract to play Cal for the rest of the decade and has a game with Utah in four years.
Arizona State has a two-year series with Stanford scheduled for the early 2030s.
And two ancient Northwest rivalries, the Apple Cup and Civil War, are in various stages of existence.
But that’s the extent of the nonconference inventory matching former Pac-12 teams, according to the website FBschedules.com, which tracks nonconferences series across the FBS and FCS.
A slew of games that seemingly make sense due to shared histories, geographic proximity and the location of alumni bases are not, at this point, lining future schedules of former Pac-12 peers.
Hopefully, that will change if the College Football Playoff takes the necessary steps to ensure quality nonconference inventory throughout the Power Four leagues.
The field is expected to double in size to 24 teams as early as next season. With that, the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC could implement standards designed to incentivize teams to craft rigorous nonconference schedules in much the same fashion the NCAA Tournament selection process rewards teams for high-level (e.g., Quadrant I) games outside of league play.
That could be problematic for Washington State, Oregon State and other schools in the rebuilt Pac-12. They would effectively be cast into purgatory as high-risk opponents (threats to win the game) that do not satisfy CFP scheduling requirements.
But for the 10 former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, a barrage of home-and-home series sprouting up in the late 2020s and early 2030s could prove beneficial.
There’s a fascinating alternative, too: NIL-driven matchups at neutral sites that mirror the multiteam events so popular in college basketball in November and December.
Why not match UCLA against Arizona State or Utah against Washington in Las Vegas – even better: make it a double-header – with sponsorship revenue going to each team’s NIL efforts?
A version of that model was put to use a few weeks ago, in fact.
Auburn was supposed to host Baylor but moved the game to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, allowing the Peach Bowl “to provide opportunities for promotional appearances for Auburn players promoting ticket sales and ancillary events,” according to ESPN’s report last year.
Admittedly, there are a barrage of hurdles. The game(s) would need a sponsor to offer the name, image and likeness opportunities. The schools would need availability within schedules that have limited flexibility. And the coaches would need a competitive reason to follow the more challenging path.
As with most other aspects of college football, it’s largely about willpower – about the schools committing to solutions that serve both their fans and the game writ large. College football is best when doubling down on regional roots, on historic connections. But the decision-makers must have a clearly defined incentive structure.
We aren’t confident. By the early 2030s, nonconference matchups between former Pac-12 schools could go the way of the Dodo.
If the CFP does the right thing once expansion becomes official, then perhaps the schools will embrace an opportunity to elevate the sport across the region.
To the Week 4 picks …
(All times Pacific)Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Absolutely nothing screams ACC football quite like Clemson playing in Berkeley on a Friday night at 10:30 p.m. Eastern … and the Bears rolling to a decisive victory. Pick: Cal
San Diego State (+3) at Toledo
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: Combine the long trip with the early kickoff and a quality opponent – not to mention SDSU’s woeful aerial game – and this has the ingredients for an intra-Group of Six wipeout. Pick: Toledo
UCLA (-11/2
) at Maryland
Kickoff: 10:30 a.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Hotline doesn’t plan to begin taking the Terps seriously if they win. But we definitely will stop taking the Bruins seriously if they lose. Pick: UCLA
Boise State (-7) at Western Michigan
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: Massive game in the Group of Six, with the winner assuming the pole position in the chase for the CFP automatic bid. Both teams struggled last week against inferior opponents: WMU edged Rice while Boise State had to beat back South Dakota. We suspect both had one eye on this showdown. Pick: Western Michigan
Iowa (+51/2
) at Michigan
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: First team to 14 wins. And covers. Pick: Iowa
Utah (-8) at Iowa State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Utah’s high-powered offense (47.3 points per game) hits the road for the first time and will encounter a well-drilled defense that should frustrate the Utes for two or three quarters before Byrd Ficklin blows the game open. Pick: Utah
Oklahoma State (+11/2
) at West Virginia
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Comment: How will West Virginia handle the afterglow from its upset of Virginia? Our hunch: Not well enough to suit coach Rich Rodriguez. The winner should be taken seriously as a Big 12 contender. Pick: Oklahoma State
Oregon (-3) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: The most significant regular-season West Coast matchup since Oregon and Washington tangled in the last year of the old Pac-12. The stakes are particularly high for USC coach Lincoln Riley’s job security, and for Oregon’s playoff prospects. We aren’t convinced the Trojans have improved enough on defense to finally slay their nemesis. Pick: Oregon
Texas A&M (+81/2
) at LSU
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: With both teams coming off losses, this effectively stands as a playoff-elimination game – and the sport is better for it. With a 24-team CFP, the drama would be cut in half. Pick: LSU
Arizona (-10) at Washington State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The line initially felt a bit high. But the more we drilled into WSU’s offensive offense, the easier it became to justify a double-digit spread. The Cougars have scored 17 points in two games against Power Four teams (Washington and Kansas State) that are comparable in personnel to the Wildcats. Pick: Arizona
Missouri (+6) at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 4:45 p.m. on SEC Network
Comment: If you haven’t seen MSU’s Kamario Taylor, this is a good opportunity to watch one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the country. And for that reason, the Bulldogs are the sleepiest of sleepers to make the playoff. Pick: Mississippi State
Oregon State (-101/2
) at UTEP
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on MW+
Comment: The Beavers are trending toward an upside surprise this season with transfer quarterback Braden Atkinson. The Miners are the Miners. Tough to envision anything other than a comfortable win for the visitors. Pick: Oregon State
Georgia Tech (-3) at Stanford
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This is Stanford’s best chance all season for a conference victory – the Yellow Jackets are struggling on offense and extremely vulnerable – but the total of 47.5 is more enticing than the spread. And in case there was any question, we like the Under. Pick: Stanford
Minnesota (+91/2
) at Washington
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Despite their well-documented struggles in Weeks 1 and 2, the Huskies should handle Minnesota with relative ease. If they don’t, well, it might be time for a red alert in Seattle. Pick: Washington
Straight-up winners: Cal, Toledo, UCLA, Boise State, Michigan, Utah, Oklahoma State, LSU, Oregon, Arizona, Mississippi State, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington
Five-star special: Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been ultra-impressive thus far. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy last week.
- Oh look, WSU football found the cellar and the lights are off
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and season-long performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
Based on postseason impact, the most significant Week 6 result in the Pac-12 was Boise State’s victory over Fresno State.
After that: Oregon State’s wipeout of San Diego State.
Next on the list? It came outside the conference: UNLV’s escape against North Dakota State, which handed the Bison their first loss and reduced the likelihood of the Mountain West producing an undefeated champion.
The 2026 season has reached the midway point, which means the time for scoreboard watching is upon us.
For the Pac-12, the calculation is fairly simple:
Any zero- or one-loss teams from the Mountain West, Mid-American, American, Conference USA or Sun Belt are potential obstacles in pursuit of the berth in the College Football Playoff that has been reserved for the top team in the Group of Six.
There are no guarantees. Two losses could become the threshold by the end of Championship Weekend in early December.
But for now, our focus is the array of teams that could finish 13-0 or 12-1.
There are nine.
American: Memphis, UTSA and Florida Atlantic.
Conference USA: Liberty
Mid-American: none
Mountain West: Air Force, New Mexico and North Dakota State
Sun Belt: James Madison and Georgia State
Because of upcoming head-to-head matchups, that list will shrink. For example, New Mexico plays both NDSU and Air Force. Also, UTSA plays Florida Atlantic.
But by our calculations, it’s reasonable to expect a few teams outside the Pac-12 to end the season 13-0 or 12-1. Some combination of Memphis, Liberty, James Madison and New Mexico is the most likely.
Of course, the Pac-12 only has one team capable of clearing that bar: Boise State (5-1). A second defeat would cast the Broncos down to the realm of two-loss teams and narrow their path into the CFP.
Then again, it’s worth accounting for the unexpected. Depending on results across the Group of Six, it’s possible that a second loss for Boise State could become the optimal outcome for the Pac-12.
We’ll explore that scenario later this month.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (5-1/2-0)
Result: won at Fresno State 38-31
Next up: idle
Comment: The drive that produced the key field goal in the final minutes – and a two-score lead – covered 13 plays. All of them were runs. It was the most Boise State of all Boise State drives. And there was nothing Fresno State could do to stop it. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (4-2/2-0)
Result: beat San Diego State 66-14
Next up: vs. Washington State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: What if the Beavers played Boise State on a neutral field in eastern Oregon this week? (Burns seems like a nice location.) Our hunch is the oddsmakers would make the Broncos a slight favorite: 2.5 points or thereabouts. And that’s roughly one-fifth of what we would have expected prior to the season. (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (4-2/1-1)
Result: lost to Boise State 38-31
Next up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: All hope is not lost, but the Bulldogs must handle Oregon State on Halloween or risk getting boxed out of the conference championship game. And they probably can’t afford to lose elsewhere. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-3/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Texas State (Thursday at 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: With Jim Mora and the Rams idle ahead of the rare Thursday game – college football has largely abandoned the day because of the NFL – the Pac-12 was not nearly as interesting a place. (Last week: 4)
5. San Diego State (2-4/1-1)
Result: lost at Oregon State 66-14
Next up: vs. Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Was losing defensive coordinator Rob Aurich (to Nebraska) the most significant staff defection any of the eight programs suffered last winter? You could make that case with 66 pieces of evidence. (Last week: 5)
6. Texas State (2-3/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Thursday at 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: If the Bobcats lose this week, the bowl math will require them to win in either Boise or Corvallis or on the Flex Saturday at the end of the season. And they are scheduled for a road game. (Last week: 6)
7. Utah State (2-4/1-1)
Result: beat Washington State 17-16
Next up: idle
Comment: Bronco Mendenhall, drawing water from stone once again. With a few more wins, he might warrant consideration for Pac-12 Coach of the Year/non-JaMarcus Shephard division. (Last week: 8)
8. Washington State (1-5/0-2)
Result: lost at Utah State 17-16
Next up: at Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: We mentioned on social media that the Cougars seem destined for a 2-10 season and readers wondered where the second win would come. There’s enough mediocrity in the conference for WSU to stumble into another victory. Maybe. (Last week: 7)
