Your Pac-12 Picks Guy Is Back and He's Got the CougsWelcome to the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 10-3-1 last week and am 25-23-2 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
If the adage is true – that good coaches win but great coaches cover – the rebuilt Pac-12 has several future Hall of Famers on its payroll.
The first month of the first season of the conference’s return to competition produced a 19-12-1 record against the point spread, according to TeamRankings.com, the wagering and analytics website.
But that mark includes a pair of .500 teams (Texas State and Utah State) and one complete flop: San Diego State’s struggles on the field (1-3) are exceeded only by the Aztecs’ 0-4 performance against the spread.
The other five teams are crushing the point spread as conference play begins this weekend.
Oregon State and first-year coach JaMarcus Shephard have covered in all four games – the betting public has not recognized OSU’s improvement – while Boise State, Fresno State and Washington State are all 3-1 and Colorado State is 2-1-1.
Those five teams are a combined 15-4-1.
The success is undoubtedly appreciated in some corners, but it won’t help the conference when the College Football Playoff selection committee determines which Group of Six team will receive the automatic bid.
That calculation will lean into the wins and losses of the teams involved in the race, in addition to a handful of performance metrics connected to the strength of the conference overall.
In that respect, the Pac-12 compares reasonably well to its primary competition.
It posted a 9-4 record against the other Group of Six leagues, including a 3-2 mark against the American and 3-0 against the Mountain West. And it stands as the highest-ranked Group of Six conference in the Sagarin computer ratings.
All of which means a Pac-12 champion with no more than two losses should be well positioned for a CFP bid.
To the picks …
Stanford (+131/2
) at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ACC Network
Comment: We picked the Cardinal last week to beat Georgia Tech outright (cha-CHING!) but do not like this situation one bit. The long trip, early kickoff, quality opponent and likelihood of rain add up to an easy call. Pick: Wake Forest
Michigan (-51/2
) at Minnesota
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: Based on how the teams fared last week, with Michigan losing at home to Iowa and Minnesota winning at Washington, the spread seems a tad high. But the Hotline won’t fall prey to recency bias. We expect the Wolverines to pull away late for the victory. Pick: Michigan
Cal (+21/2
) at UNLV
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The resistible force (Cal’s offense) meets the movable object (UNLV’s defense) in what could be a highly entertaining, although not well played, affair in Sin City. Both teams are desperate after splitting their first four games, but the Bears have better personnel. Pick: Cal
UTEP (+221/2
) at New Mexico
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on MW+
Comment: The Lobos are 4-0 against the point spread and have covered by an average of 161/2 points, according to TeamRankings.com. The trend is our friend. Pick: New Mexico
Oregon State (-61/2
) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: Perhaps the most interesting game of the opening week of conference play in the new Pac-12. If the Beavers truly belong on the top tier with Boise State, they will handle the defensively challenged Rams without much difficulty. For the moment, that’s exactly how we see it. Pick: Oregon State
BYU (-61/2
) at TCU
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Cougars had two weeks to prepare while the Horned Frogs were losing last weekend at UCF. Frankly, we’re surprised the spread isn’t closer to double digits. Bear Bachmeier should have his way with TCU’s pass defense. Pick: BYU
Washington (+91/2
) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Both teams are reeling, but we suspect the Trojans will have more difficulty recovering emotionally from yet another loss to Oregon. Also, this is strength on strength with USC’s offense matched against UW’s defense and vice versa. That suggests a close game throughout. Pick: Washington
Utah State (+20) at Boise State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: This feels like a letdown situation for the Broncos after their big win at Western Michigan. The Aggies don’t have enough offense to produce an upset, but they should hang around just long enough to cover that rather large number. Pick: Utah State
Fresno State (+2) at Washington State
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: This is tantamount to a must-win game for WSU (1-3) in order to make the bowl math work. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have started slowly in a handful of games and can’t afford to fall too far behind. The points are enticing, but the Cougars played well enough against Arizona to make us lean toward the home side. Pick: Washington State
Baylor (+4) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Sun Devils are home for the first time since the season opener, having lost at Texas A&M, beaten Kansas in London, then taken a week off to recover. As a result of the disruption, we expect a sluggish start and strong finish against an opponent that isn’t good enough to take full advantage of its chances. Pick: Arizona State
Texas State (-7) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The visitors opened as 41/2-point favorites, prompting a money flow strong enough to push the line to 7. And if that doesn’t frame the state of affairs for SDSU, nothing does. However, the Hotline will take the opportunity to zag while everyone else zigs. Pick: San Diego State
Cincinnati (+61/2
) at Arizona
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Bearcats are 4-0 but have yet to play a road game while the Wildcats are 3-1 with the loss coming on the road to a ranked opponent (BYU). Cincinnati has one of the best ground games in the country (270 yards per game). Arizona’s trouble against the run in Provo suggests a supreme challenge Saturday night – and the need for some fourth-quarter Noah Fifita heroics. Pick: Cincinnati
Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Michigan, Cal, New Mexico, Oregon State, BYU, USC, Boise State, Washington State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Arizona.
Five-star special: BYU. Nothing TCU has done thus far, particularly the loss to North Carolina, indicates the Horned Frogs can match the Cougars yard for yard and score for score for four quarters.
