turnover margin
Wazzu keeps turnover margin in one place: 4 stories so far. The section currently leads with “Pinnick's five turnovers make Saturday a test of Cougar ball security”, “Wazzu's Saturday math problem: Fresno takes the ball, Cougs give it back”, and “Moore faces his old team as a new Pac-12 era begins in Pullman”. Caden Pinnick has given the ball away five times this season. Here's the math problem for Saturday, and it's not the kind you can solve with a calculator. The unofficial read for people who left Pullman and stayed Cougs. The list below is every turnover margin story on Wazzu, newest first.
Pinnick's five turnovers make Saturday a test of Cougar ball security
Caden Pinnick has given the ball away five times this season. Washington State as a team has turned it over seven times. That's a minus-4 turnover margin, good for No. 119 nationally. Fresno State, meanwhile, sits at plus-7, ranked No. 6. Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on USA, that math is the whole game. Pinnick is sharp when he keeps it short. He's completed 71 percent of his throws from zero to 19 yards. But on passes of 20-plus yards, he's hit just 2 of 13 with two picks. Fresno State corner Simeon Harris already has three interceptions. Pinnick does not need to test him deep. The Cougs can help their quarterback by running the ball. Kirby Vorhees is a game-time decision with an upper-body injury. If he can't go, Maxwell Woods gets the carries. Fresno State's defense is a better matchup for this WSU offense than some others have been. A credible ground game early would let Pinnick settle in instead of pressing. That pressing is where the trouble starts. The flip side: Fresno State knows what WSU gives up. The Cougar defense allows just 4.3 points per game in the first quarter. By the fourth, that number jumps to 11.3, ranking No. 123 nationally. That's a tired unit. Fresno can lean on long drives and let WSU's own mistakes do the rest. For a deeper look at how this math problem has been building, check out "Wazzu's Saturday math problem: Fresno takes the ball, Cougs give it back.
Wazzu's Saturday math problem: Fresno takes the ball, Cougs give it back
Here's the math problem for Saturday, and it's not the kind you can solve with a calculator. Fresno State comes to Pullman ranked sixth in the country in turnover margin at plus-seven. Washington State is 119th at minus-four. That gap is the whole ballgame before kickoff even happens. The Cougars have given it away seven times this season. Five of those are Caden Pinnick's doing. The quarterback has been fine when he keeps it short, completing 71% of his throws inside 19 yards. But the moment he tries to push the ball downfield, the wheels come off. He's hit just 2 of 13 passes of 20-plus yards and thrown two picks on those attempts. That's not a matchup problem. That's a decision problem, and it's shown up against Washington and even Duquesne. So what's the counter? Run the ball. Keep the pressure off Pinnick and make Fresno's defense respect something underneath. That gets harder if Kirby Vorhees can't go with that upper-body injury. He's the best weapon Matt Miller has in the backfield, and without him, the offense loses its teeth. We're not going to overthink this one. The Cougars have a chance because the game is at home and the matchup is more even than the records suggest. But turnovers travel, and Fresno's defense feeds on them. Give us the Bulldogs, 24-20. If you need a break from the math, check out "Three Cougs who made the Boeing Apple Cup one to remember.
Moore faces his old team as a new Pac-12 era begins in Pullman
Wazzu's own Kirby Moore gets a chance to turn around a 1-3 start Saturday night, and the storylines are too good to ignore. He's facing Fresno State, the program that gave him his first FBS job as receivers coach and offensive coordinator from 2017-22. That's the kind of drama that makes a Palouse fall evening worth the walk to Gesa Field. The Cougs are coming off a loss to Arizona that had a few bright spots, safety Jackquintin Bal's pick-six, punter Max Dean averaging 40 yards despite migraines, but also a whole lot of slog. WSU put up zero points in the third quarter. Caden Pinnick took his 10th sack of the season. The offense has turned the ball over seven times now, which is 119th in the country. That's not a stat you text home about. Fresno State, meanwhile, is rolling. They're 3-1 with the Pac-12's best defense so far, allowing just 19 points a game. Cornerback Simeon Harris has three interceptions already. Moore knows the challenge: "That's gonna be really important, to make sure we take care of the football." He's not wrong. If you want to dig into how WSU's defensive snaps piled up in that Arizona loss, our piece on "Second-half snaps tell the story of WSU's defensive breakdowns" lays it out. Go Cougs.
The Ball is the Boss: Moore's First Pac-12 Test is About Holdin' On
Saturday night in Pullman, the Cougs finally get to play a game that counts in the Pac-12 standings. It's been nearly three years. Problem is, Fresno State is coming to town, and they take the ball away for a living. Plus-seven turnover margin. Sixth-best in the country. Meanwhile, Caden Pinnick has lost five turnovers in four games. That math doesn't add up. Kirby Moore is walking a tightrope. He has to tell his quarterback to protect the ball without making him afraid to throw it. That's a fine line, and Moore knows it. He's been saying all week that every play has a life of its own. That's coach-speak for "don't force it, but don't freeze up either." The ground game might not help. Kirby Vorhees is a gametime decision with an upper-body injury, and the running backs haven't cracked 100 yards against an FBS team all year. The good news? Trey Leckner could finally debut at tight end. That's a weapon they haven't had yet. Defensively, they have to slow down Jayden Mandal and Rayshon Luke, who just put up 167 yards on 11 carries. That's a problem. This game won't decide the season, but it'll tell you a lot. Lose, and you're staring at 1-4 with Utah State and Oregon State on the road. The bowl streak starts looking shaky. Win, and you're 1-0 in conference play with a pulse. If you want the deeper numbers, check out our piece on Pinnick's five turnovers.