Wazzu's Saturday math problem: Fresno takes the ball, Cougs give it backPULLMAN — By now, you have probably read the statistic that might color Washington State’s Pac-12 opener, a home matchup with Fresno State set for Saturday evening.
Here it is: Fresno State ranks No. 6 nationally with a turnover margin of plus-seven. Meanwhile, WSU ranks No. 119 nationally with a minus-four.
That paints a fairly accurate picture of the struggles of the Cougars’ offense, which has committed seven turnovers on the season, including five from quarterback Caden Pinnick. They’ve had trouble holding onto the ball, which figures to become even harder to do against a defense that has shown to be one of the country’s finest at jarring it loose.
So while WSU will get what figures to be a more even matchup against Fresno State, making a Cougar win possible, Pinnick has shown that the opponent is not what has prompted some of the bad decisions that have led to his turnovers. He’s made regrettable decisions against the likes of Washington and FCS Duquesne, which is why we’re picking the Bulldogs to walk out of Pullman with a win.
In his first four games at the FBS level, Pinnick has shown to be sharp from 0 to 19 yards, hitting 49 of 69 of passes at that depth, which is 71%. And not only has he been less effective at distance, hitting on just 2 of 13 passes on throws of 20-plus yards, but he’s also thrown two interceptions on those. It’s becoming clear that when he tries to stretch the field, he’s vulnerable to making mistakes.
For WSU, there’s a way to counter that, which is to generate a credible ground attack. The Cougars are more than capable of doing that, but running back Kirby Vorhees is questionable to play due to an upper-body injury, which would remove one of offensive coordinator Matt Miller’s unit’s best weapons.
Final score: Fresno State 24, WSU 20
Pinnick's five turnovers make Saturday a test of Cougar ball securityWashington State vs. Fresno State
Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
Line: WSU favored by 1.5
TV: USA
Radio: 920-AM
Key matchup: WSU QB Caden Pinnick against Fresno State defense
There’s one theme that will likely shape Saturday’s game: Can Pinnick avoid turnovers against Fresno State’s defense? Pinnick has lost five turnovers for the Cougars, who have committed seven total as a team, adding up to a turnover margin of minus-4. That ranks No. 119 nationally. Meanwhile, Fresno State has engineered a turnover margin of plus-7, which is No. 6 in the country.
Pinnick can’t afford any missteps on Saturday. He’s lost many of his turnovers trying to extend plays and stretch the field, which reinforces what is becoming clear: Pinnick is at his best throwing short and intermediate routes, completing 49 of 69 of passes from zero to 19 yards, which is a sharp 71%. But he’s much less effective at distance, hitting on just 2 of 13 passes with two interceptions on throws of 20-plus yards.
Fresno State cornerback Simeon Harris, who has pocketed three interceptions already, will be lurking. Pinnick might be able to throw in his direction, but he may be wise to avoid deep throws, which is when he’s gone wrong this fall.
How the Cougs win…
WSU can win this game by generating an effective ground game, which might be complicated by the status of running back Kirby Vorhees, who will be a gametime decision as he nurses an upper-body injury. If Vorhees can’t go, the Cougars could give more carries to redshirt sophomore tailback Maxwell Woods, who has had a similarly rough go against FBS competition this fall.
But against Fresno State, whose defense could be a better matchup for WSU’s offense, Woods and the Cougars could get going. That would simplify things for Pinnick and remove some pressure, allowing him to ease his way into the game, instead of pressing. That’s where he’s gotten in some trouble this season.
If WSU can establish a credible ground attack early on Saturday, Pinnick won’t feel the need to create plays that aren’t there, which is often how Fresno State’s defense has feasted in a 3-1 start to the season.
How the Bulldogs win…
Fresno State’s clearest path to victory involves preying on WSU’s biggest weakness, which is its turnovers. By giving Pinnick different looks, the Bulldogs might be able to frustrate the quarterback. Last weekend, Arizona sent a myriad of blitzes at WSU and its offensive line, which couldn’t give Pinnick enough time to make good decisions.
Plus, because of the amount of turnovers the Cougs’ offense has committed, their defense has been on the field for several extra drives and heavy snap counts. WSU’s defense has allowed just 4.3 points per game in the first quarter, which ranks No. 57 nationally. That unit has permitted 11.3 points per game in the fourth quarter, which is No. 123 nationally.
That paints a picture of the WSU defense, which has tired out as games unfold. To take full advantage, Fresno State’s defense could engineer long drives against the Cougs’ defense, which is mighty talented. But it’s also made up of human beings, who get tired the more they play.
Key stat: 32.6
Pinnick has earned a Pro Football Focus deep passing grade of 32.6, which is four spots up from dead last in the country among QBs who have tried at least 13 passes of 20-plus yards. That indicates a key limitation of WSU’s offense, which is its inability to create explosive plays through the air. If the Cougars can’t generate explosives on the ground, either, their offense could be in for another forgettable one.
Quotable
“I think any receiver would say one is too many,” wide receiver Darrius Clemons said of his reliability, dropping just one ball this season. “When Caden puts the ball in the air, it’s coming my way, my job is to catch it. He expects me to catch it. I think everybody on the team expects you to catch it. When the ball is in your hands or coming your way, the program’s in your hands, essentially.”
