Spokesman.com
Are blowouts getting worse? The Pac-12 mailbag crunches the numbers
Yes, blowouts are getting worse, and the numbers back it up. Through Week 3, the average point differential in non-conference games involving the big four conferences plus Notre Dame hit 27.8 points, the largest since at least 2000. That's more than double the 13.2-point margin from 2001. When you strip out Power Four vs. Power Four games and look only at the mismatches, the average jumps to 34.6 points. The trend line is climbing every year, and it started climbing right when NIL became law in 2021 and the transfer portal opened up. Money flows up. Talent follows.
The Hotline doesn't let the Big Ten off the hook here. Twenty-eight percent of the conference isn't playing a single opponent from the ACC, Big 12, or SEC this season. Nebraska, Indiana, USC, Washington, and Penn State all filled their non-conference slots with Group of Six or FCS teams. That's weak sauce, and it's why Fox ended up airing Ohio State-Kent State in its Big Noon window.
The sport is flattening at the top while thinning out everywhere else. The Hotline calls it a mushroom cloud shape. That feels right.
If you want to see how this plays out in Pullman, read "One good half doesn't change what Duquesne was." It's the same story, just closer to home.
