- It hurts: Beavers rising while Cougs slide in the new Pac-12
They were together in the fight for survival, together in the salvage operation and together in the rebirth of Pac-12 football six weeks ago.
But when Oregon State and Washington State take the field Saturday afternoon in Corvallis, the connection won’t go much deeper than history and conference affiliation.
The Beavers are riveting, relevant and ascendant.
The Cougars are dull, immaterial and spiraling.
Their respective trajectories reflect life on the margins of major college football, where traditions are modest, resources limited and fates unpredictable.
Nobody expected the Beavers (4-2) to be one of the best stories in the sport under first-year coach JaMarcus Shephard, produce one of the game’s brightest young stars and emerge as a Pac-12 title contender with a path, albeit narrow, into the College Football Playoff.
Nobody expected the Cougars (1-5) to quickly sink to the bottom of the rebuilt conference under first-year coach Kirby Moore, with an inept offense, overburdened defense and the slimmest of chances to qualify for a bowl berth.
Washington State looks like a bad team in the new Pac-12.
Oregon State looks like a good team in the old Pac-12.
It’s easy enough to imagine alternate outcomes, with the Beavers flailing and the Cougars roaring.
The difference? A series of decisions made on each campus late last fall.
The Beavers had fired Trent Bray weeks earlier, following a dismal two-year stretch that coincided with the Pac-12’s transition period. The Cougars needed a coach after Jimmy Rogers bolted for Iowa State.
The schools took gigantic risks in handing the keys to rookie coaches. Neither spent much money. (Shephard and Moore are two of the lowest-paid coaches in the conference.) Both were desperate.
WSU wanted stability after churning through four coaches in seven years. OSU wanted energy and hope after slogging through the gloom of the Bray era. Both wanted leaders who could generate immediate success in the rebuilt conference.
How would success be defined? By three words: College Football Playoff.
Everything about the Pac-12, from the membership composition to the conference schedule to the resource allocation, was based on claiming the playoff berth reserved for the top team in the Group of Six.
Why? Because CFP appearances generate relevance and build brands and position schools outside the Big Ten and SEC for whatever comes next, whether it’s another round of realignment or a super league.
The sport’s status quo is unlikely to last into the 2030s. Every school in the ACC and Big 12 wants to jump into the Big Ten and SEC. Every school in the Pac-12 wants to move into the Big 12 and ACC.
The industry is hard-wired for ascent.
That’s why the Pac-12’s grant-of-rights contract binding the schools together expires in 2031.
That’s why WSU and OSU had to get their hires right.
The Cougars considered Bryan Harsin, the former Boise State coach, but are believed to have offered the job to Moore and nobody else. He was, it seems, their first choice.
The Beavers pursued North Dakota State’s Tim Polasek and Montana State’s Brent Vigen. Was Shephard the third choice? Only a handful of current and former school executives know, but he wasn’t the obvious first pick. That’s clear.
Sometimes, you get lucky. And when that luck combines with skill, breakthrough seasons follow.
Shephard has made all the right moves with staff and personnel decisions, particularly quarterback Braden Atkinson, a transfer from Mercer, and receiver Jesse Legree, a low-profile recruit from Baltimore.
He also hit with offensive coordinator Mitch Dalen, who learned his craft from Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, and defensive playcaller Mike MacIntyre, a former national Coach of the Year (at Colorado).
And crucially, he hired a general manager, Eron Hodges, with an eye for roster construction.
Were the Cougars unlucky? Did they whiff with Moore? It’s too soon to declare a misfire.
But clearly, Moore has not made all the right decisions with his staff and roster. Last week, he stripped offensive coordinator Matt Miller of his playcalling duties. This week, Moore changed quarterbacks. If that doesn’t work, he’s out of options until December.
As currently constructed, the Cougars look overwhelmed, outmanned and out of their league — even though it is, in so many regards, their league.
They are winless against FBS competition and don’t appear capable of derailing the Beavers, who have won four consecutive games by an average of 36 points.
On the field, at least, WSU and OSU have gone their separate ways.
Their trajectories might cross again in one year, or in five. They could cross multiple times before the decade ends. On the sport’s margins, the only thing more fleeting than failure is success.
- Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and seasonlong performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
Boise State was the most important addition when the flattened, desperate Pac-12 reclaimed its future by adding five schools from the Mountain West in September 2024.
Two years and two weeks later, the Broncos are carrying the banner for the rebuilt conference regionally, domestically, internationally and cosmically.
They have emerged from September as the frontrunner for the College Football Playoff berth allocated to the top team in the Group of Six following the close loss to Oregon and convincing victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – two teams that also hold designs on the CFP.
The Broncos are the only team ranked in the AP Top 25 poll this week (No. 22) from outside the power conferences.
They are the top Group of Six team, by a wide margin, in both the Sagarin computer rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index.
And critically, the Broncos (3-1) have acquired enough resume equity that they can afford one loss in conference play and remain on track for the CFP – assuming, of course, that it’s the right loss: well played, close and to a quality opponent.
Key point: The playoff berth awaiting the top-ranked team in the Group of Six is not reserved for a conference champion; it goes to the best team from the collection of 70.
If the Broncos run the table in the Pac-12 and are 12-1 on CFP selection day (Dec. 6), they’re in.
(That was exactly the same resume they produced in 2024, and it delivered a No. 9 ranking in the selection committee’s final analysis).
If they are 11-2, with that strong nonconference resume and a single loss somewhere within the Pac-12, they would remain well positioned.
At that point, the Broncos would be compared to the zero-, one- or two-loss teams from the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC and Conference USA.
Their victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – and the narrow loss in Eugene – might be decisive in a resume showdown.
If those teams fare well in their respective leagues, and if Oregon finishes near the top of the Big Ten, the Broncos would compare favorably thanks to an indisputably impressive September.
To the power rankings …
1. Boise State (3-1)
Result: won at Western Michigan 32-7
Next up: vs. Utah State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The Broncos are averaging 237 yards per game rushing and 204 passing. If you’re curious, they averaged 240 and 226, respectively, two years ago during the playoff drive. Put another way: 51.5% of their total yards were on the ground in 2024 with Ashton Jeanty while 53.7% are on the ground this year with Dylan Riley. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (2-2)
Result: won at UTEP 33-7
Next up: at Colorado State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: As far as the Hotline is concerned, it’s a three-team race for the Pac-12 title, and Oregon State is one of those teams. Which is much more a credit to the Beavers than an indictment on the conference despite the low expectations for OSU (both here and elsewhere). (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (3-1)
Result: beat Rice 38-24
Next up: at Washington State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Slow starters, fast finishers: The Bulldogs outscored San Jose State 20-7 in the second half in a Week 3 victory and outscored Rice 24-7 on Saturday night. Not sure they want to lean into that trend in Pullman, however. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-2)
Result: lost at UTSA 59-45
Next up: vs. Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: A tough assignment in San Antonio was made substantially more difficult without injured quarterback Hauss Hejny (hamstring). But his backup, K’saan Farrar, who followed Jim Mora Jr. from UConn, was more than adequate. The problem, for the second consecutive week, was CSU’s defense. (Last week: 5)
5. Texas State (2-2)
Result: beat Incarnate Word 63-10
Next up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: Had the Bobcats prevented a game-winning touchdown run with 14 seconds remaining by UTSA a few weeks ago, their resume would look markedly different. As we have said many times, the entire feel of a 12-game season typically turns on three or four plays. (Last week: 6)
6. San Diego State (1-3)
Result: lost at Toledo 41-16
Next up: vs. Texas State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The lengthy list of woe in San Diego starts with the absence of defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, who’s now with Nebraska, and the poor quarterback play. Replacing elite coordinators is a tough deal, especially at the Group of Six level. But it was easy to see the quarterback issues coming after Jayden Denegal’s wobbly play last season. (Last week: 4)
7. Washington St. (1-3)
Result: lost to Arizona 34-24
Next up: vs. Fresno State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Because the Cougars have yet to face a Group of Six opponent, it’s difficult to know where they stand relative to the rest of the conference. (Other than Duquesne, their schedule has been arduous). This week offers needed perspective. Our hunch: The product revealed Saturday night will be substandard. (Last week: 7)
8. Utah State (1-3)
Result: beat Troy 21-10
Next up: at Boise State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: There are winnable games remaining for the Aggies. But Boise State is not one of them, even if the Broncos are in letdown mode after their big victory at Western Michigan. (Last week: 8)
- Pac-12 power rankings leave little doubt about the gap ahead of WSU
Editor’s note: The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday and consider both the latest results and seasonlong performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
One week into round-robin play, it’s abundantly clear: The Pac-12 is a three-team race.
Boise State, Oregon State and Fresno State are the class of the conference, and it doesn’t appear to be particularly close. The gap between the top three and bottom five feels like a chasm.
Washington State doesn’t have enough offense to secure a bowl berth, much less contend for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game.
Colorado State doesn’t have enough defense. (Nor do the Rams have a defensive coordinator at the moment.)
San Diego State? The Aztecs are lacking the most essential ingredient: healthy bodies.
Texas State doesn’t do anything well enough, which is doubly true when it comes to holding second-half leads.
Utah State does everything poorly.
That’s it. Remove those five flawed teams, and you have three remaining.
They aren’t created equal, not by any stretch: The Beavers lead with their offense, the Bulldogs with their defense and the Broncos with both, which explains their status as the frontrunner for both the Pac-12 title and a berth in the College Football Playoff.
But the beauty of the rebuilt Pac-12’s small size is the pure round-robin schedule. We don’t have to imagine how one contender would fare against another or delay judgment until the conference championship game.
In the Big 12, Utah and BYU don’t play Texas Tech.
In the SEC, Alabama and Georgia don’t play Texas.
In the Big Ten, Oregon doesn’t play Indiana.
But the Pac-12 doesn’t have that problem with eight teams and seven league games.
Everyone plays everyone, allowing us to identify the defining dates:
Oct. 10: Boise State at Fresno State
Oct. 31: Oregon State at Fresno State
Nov. 14: Oregon State at Boise State
Advantage to the Bulldogs, right? They host the other two while Oregon State is on the road for both.
Not necessarily.
Oregon State has played well away from home, with blowout victories at UTEP and Colorado State and a competitive loss at Houston.
Boise State can win anywhere.
Here are the victory projections for each team against the other two, according to the gambling and analytics website TeamRankings.com:
• Boise State: 66.3% at Fresno State and 77.4% against Oregon State
• Fresno State: 36.7% against Boise State and 59% against Oregon State
• Oregon State: 22.6% at Boise State and 41% at Fresno State
Our hunch: The Broncos win both, the Beavers split and the Bulldogs get swept.
As the late, great philosopher Bill Walton said often, “Offense wins championships.”
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (4-1/1-0)
Result: beat Utah State 37-18
Next up: at Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on the CW)
Comment: No team in the conference has better balance than the Broncos – not only offense-defense balance but also run-pass balance: They are averaging 227 rushing yards and 212 passing yards per game and likely will need every bit of both Saturday night against the Bulldogs, who allow just 16 points per game. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (3-2/1-0)
Result: won at Colorado State 56-26
Next up: vs. San Diego State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Receiver Jesse Legree falls into the same where-did-they-find-that-guy category as former Oregon State stars like Brandin Cooks and Jacquizz Rodgers. (The answer is Baltimore.) But as the heart of conference play ramps up and opponents develop a better sense for OSU’s scheme and formations, we wonder: How will the Beavers adjust to the adjustments? (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (4-1/1-0)
Result: won at Washington State 26-6
Next up: vs. Boise State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The Bulldogs were set up to fail in the season opener at USC, which had already played (San Jose State) and was far sharper. Since that 39-0 loss, Fresno State is allowing 10.8 points per game. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-3/0-1)
Result: lost to Oregon State 56-26
Next up: idle
Comment: It’s not often that a coordinator is stripped of his playcalling duties during a game. But if you had asked us to name the three Pac-12 head coaches most likely to make that type of in-game decision, Jim Mora Jr. would have been among our group. (Granted, relieving Tyson Summers of his responsibilities was a competitive imperative.) (Last week: 4)
5. San Diego State (2-3/1-0)
Result: beat Texas State 31-29
Next up: at Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: An indisputably impressive victory for the Aztecs considering their two tailbacks were injured, more than a dozen players were unavailable due to the mumps outbreak and quarterback Jayden Denegal has struggled under any and every condition this season. And yet, the Aztecs rallied from a 14-point deficit thanks to their defense and special teams. (Last week: 7)
6. Texas State (2-3/0-1)
Result: lost at San Diego State 31-29
Next up: idle
Comment: The Bobcats were outscored 52-21 after halftime in losses to UTSA and San Diego State, dropping the former by five points and the latter by two. Had they held on, the season would have an entirely different look and feel. But one of the defining features of mediocre teams is the inability to close out games. (Last week: 5)
7. Washington State (1-4/0-1)
Result: lost to Fresno State 26-6
Next up: at Utah State (Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: From here, it’s clear that first-year coach Kirby Moore, a former receiver and offensive coordinator, has no answers. (Or he has the answers and won’t implement them.) It’s also clear that if Moore doesn’t fix the offensive offense in the next 19 games, Washington State will be in the market for a new coach. Time is short when attempting to prove you belong in the Power Four. (Last week: 6)
8. Utah State (1-4/0-1)
Result: lost at Boise State 37-18
Next up: vs. Washington State (Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: One team will collect its second victory of the season Friday night in Logan, but the process could be tough on the eyes and set the sport back years. First team to 11 wins. (Last week: 8)
