- Boise owns September, but the Cougs are still a question mark
The Pac-12 football power rankings are published each Sunday on the Hotline and consider both the latest results and seasonlong performance. Call it an objectively subjective look at the state of the conference. If you’re unhappy with the order, email us at the address below … or play better. For comparative purposes, we have included the placement of each team in last week’s rankings.
Boise State was the most important addition when the flattened, desperate Pac-12 reclaimed its future by adding five schools from the Mountain West in September 2024.
Two years and two weeks later, the Broncos are carrying the banner for the rebuilt conference regionally, domestically, internationally and cosmically.
They have emerged from September as the frontrunner for the College Football Playoff berth allocated to the top team in the Group of Six following the close loss to Oregon and convincing victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – two teams that also hold designs on the CFP.
The Broncos are the only team ranked in the AP Top 25 poll this week (No. 22) from outside the power conferences.
They are the top Group of Six team, by a wide margin, in both the Sagarin computer rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index.
And critically, the Broncos (3-1) have acquired enough resume equity that they can afford one loss in conference play and remain on track for the CFP – assuming, of course, that it’s the right loss: well played, close and to a quality opponent.
Key point: The playoff berth awaiting the top-ranked team in the Group of Six is not reserved for a conference champion; it goes to the best team from the collection of 70.
If the Broncos run the table in the Pac-12 and are 12-1 on CFP selection day (Dec. 6), they’re in.
(That was exactly the same resume they produced in 2024, and it delivered a No. 9 ranking in the selection committee’s final analysis).
If they are 11-2, with that strong nonconference resume and a single loss somewhere within the Pac-12, they would remain well positioned.
At that point, the Broncos would be compared to the zero-, one- or two-loss teams from the American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC and Conference USA.
Their victories over Memphis and Western Michigan – and the narrow loss in Eugene – might be decisive in a resume showdown.
If those teams fare well in their respective leagues, and if Oregon finishes near the top of the Big Ten, the Broncos would compare favorably thanks to an indisputably impressive September.
To the power rankings …
1. Boise State (3-1)
Result: won at Western Michigan 32-7
Next up: vs. Utah State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The Broncos are averaging 237 yards per game rushing and 204 passing. If you’re curious, they averaged 240 and 226, respectively, two years ago during the playoff drive. Put another way: 51.5% of their total yards were on the ground in 2024 with Ashton Jeanty while 53.7% are on the ground this year with Dylan Riley. (Last week: 1)
2. Oregon State (2-2)
Result: won at UTEP 33-7
Next up: at Colorado State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: As far as the Hotline is concerned, it’s a three-team race for the Pac-12 title, and Oregon State is one of those teams. Which is much more a credit to the Beavers than an indictment on the conference despite the low expectations for OSU (both here and elsewhere). (Last week: 2)
3. Fresno State (3-1)
Result: beat Rice 38-24
Next up: at Washington State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Slow starters, fast finishers: The Bulldogs outscored San Jose State 20-7 in the second half in a Week 3 victory and outscored Rice 24-7 on Saturday night. Not sure they want to lean into that trend in Pullman, however. (Last week: 3)
4. Colorado State (2-2)
Result: lost at UTSA 59-45
Next up: vs. Oregon State (3 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: A tough assignment in San Antonio was made substantially more difficult without injured quarterback Hauss Hejny (hamstring). But his backup, K’saan Farrar, who followed Jim Mora Jr. from UConn, was more than adequate. The problem, for the second consecutive week, was CSU’s defense. (Last week: 5)
5. Texas State (2-2)
Result: beat Incarnate Word 63-10
Next up: at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: Had the Bobcats prevented a game-winning touchdown run with 14 seconds remaining by UTSA a few weeks ago, their resume would look markedly different. As we have said many times, the entire feel of a 12-game season typically turns on three or four plays. (Last week: 6)
6. San Diego State (1-3)
Result: lost at Toledo 41-16
Next up: vs. Texas State (7:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: The lengthy list of woe in San Diego starts with the absence of defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, who’s now with Nebraska, and the poor quarterback play. Replacing elite coordinators is a tough deal, especially at the Group of Six level. But it was easy to see the quarterback issues coming after Jayden Denegal’s wobbly play last season. (Last week: 4)
7. Washington St. (1-3)
Result: lost to Arizona 34-24
Next up: vs. Fresno State (6:30 p.m. on USA Network)
Comment: Because the Cougars have yet to face a Group of Six opponent, it’s difficult to know where they stand relative to the rest of the conference. (Other than Duquesne, their schedule has been arduous). This week offers needed perspective. Our hunch: The product revealed Saturday night will be substandard. (Last week: 7)
8. Utah State (1-3)
Result: beat Troy 21-10
Next up: at Boise State (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: There are winnable games remaining for the Aggies. But Boise State is not one of them, even if the Broncos are in letdown mode after their big victory at Western Michigan. (Last week: 8)
- Your Pac-12 Picks Guy Is Back and He's Got the Cougs
Welcome to the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 10-3-1 last week and am 25-23-2 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
If the adage is true – that good coaches win but great coaches cover – the rebuilt Pac-12 has several future Hall of Famers on its payroll.
The first month of the first season of the conference’s return to competition produced a 19-12-1 record against the point spread, according to TeamRankings.com, the wagering and analytics website.
But that mark includes a pair of .500 teams (Texas State and Utah State) and one complete flop: San Diego State’s struggles on the field (1-3) are exceeded only by the Aztecs’ 0-4 performance against the spread.
The other five teams are crushing the point spread as conference play begins this weekend.
Oregon State and first-year coach JaMarcus Shephard have covered in all four games – the betting public has not recognized OSU’s improvement – while Boise State, Fresno State and Washington State are all 3-1 and Colorado State is 2-1-1.
Those five teams are a combined 15-4-1.
The success is undoubtedly appreciated in some corners, but it won’t help the conference when the College Football Playoff selection committee determines which Group of Six team will receive the automatic bid.
That calculation will lean into the wins and losses of the teams involved in the race, in addition to a handful of performance metrics connected to the strength of the conference overall.
In that respect, the Pac-12 compares reasonably well to its primary competition.
It posted a 9-4 record against the other Group of Six leagues, including a 3-2 mark against the American and 3-0 against the Mountain West. And it stands as the highest-ranked Group of Six conference in the Sagarin computer ratings.
All of which means a Pac-12 champion with no more than two losses should be well positioned for a CFP bid.
To the picks …
Stanford (+131/2
) at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ACC Network
Comment: We picked the Cardinal last week to beat Georgia Tech outright (cha-CHING!) but do not like this situation one bit. The long trip, early kickoff, quality opponent and likelihood of rain add up to an easy call. Pick: Wake Forest
Michigan (-51/2
) at Minnesota
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: Based on how the teams fared last week, with Michigan losing at home to Iowa and Minnesota winning at Washington, the spread seems a tad high. But the Hotline won’t fall prey to recency bias. We expect the Wolverines to pull away late for the victory. Pick: Michigan
Cal (+21/2
) at UNLV
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The resistible force (Cal’s offense) meets the movable object (UNLV’s defense) in what could be a highly entertaining, although not well played, affair in Sin City. Both teams are desperate after splitting their first four games, but the Bears have better personnel. Pick: Cal
UTEP (+221/2
) at New Mexico
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on MW+
Comment: The Lobos are 4-0 against the point spread and have covered by an average of 161/2 points, according to TeamRankings.com. The trend is our friend. Pick: New Mexico
Oregon State (-61/2
) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: Perhaps the most interesting game of the opening week of conference play in the new Pac-12. If the Beavers truly belong on the top tier with Boise State, they will handle the defensively challenged Rams without much difficulty. For the moment, that’s exactly how we see it. Pick: Oregon State
BYU (-61/2
) at TCU
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Cougars had two weeks to prepare while the Horned Frogs were losing last weekend at UCF. Frankly, we’re surprised the spread isn’t closer to double digits. Bear Bachmeier should have his way with TCU’s pass defense. Pick: BYU
Washington (+91/2
) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Both teams are reeling, but we suspect the Trojans will have more difficulty recovering emotionally from yet another loss to Oregon. Also, this is strength on strength with USC’s offense matched against UW’s defense and vice versa. That suggests a close game throughout. Pick: Washington
Utah State (+20) at Boise State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: This feels like a letdown situation for the Broncos after their big win at Western Michigan. The Aggies don’t have enough offense to produce an upset, but they should hang around just long enough to cover that rather large number. Pick: Utah State
Fresno State (+2) at Washington State
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: This is tantamount to a must-win game for WSU (1-3) in order to make the bowl math work. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have started slowly in a handful of games and can’t afford to fall too far behind. The points are enticing, but the Cougars played well enough against Arizona to make us lean toward the home side. Pick: Washington State
Baylor (+4) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Sun Devils are home for the first time since the season opener, having lost at Texas A&M, beaten Kansas in London, then taken a week off to recover. As a result of the disruption, we expect a sluggish start and strong finish against an opponent that isn’t good enough to take full advantage of its chances. Pick: Arizona State
Texas State (-7) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The visitors opened as 41/2-point favorites, prompting a money flow strong enough to push the line to 7. And if that doesn’t frame the state of affairs for SDSU, nothing does. However, the Hotline will take the opportunity to zag while everyone else zigs. Pick: San Diego State
Cincinnati (+61/2
) at Arizona
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Bearcats are 4-0 but have yet to play a road game while the Wildcats are 3-1 with the loss coming on the road to a ranked opponent (BYU). Cincinnati has one of the best ground games in the country (270 yards per game). Arizona’s trouble against the run in Provo suggests a supreme challenge Saturday night – and the need for some fourth-quarter Noah Fifita heroics. Pick: Cincinnati
Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Michigan, Cal, New Mexico, Oregon State, BYU, USC, Boise State, Washington State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Arizona.
Five-star special: BYU. Nothing TCU has done thus far, particularly the loss to North Carolina, indicates the Horned Frogs can match the Cougars yard for yard and score for score for four quarters.
- The offense is MIA and Pullman is letting the Cougs hear it
This absolutely cannot happen. And it’s happening at the worst possible time.
Washington State’s football team is bad right now. Worse, it is boring.
The home crowd – an especially hardy bunch whose members often undertake long journeys just to get to Pullman for the game because they love their Cougs – were loud with their displeasure after the home offense began the game with three feeble drives.
The Cougars have been bad before, but that was the price paid for playing on the sport’s biggest stage, against its best teams. Fans waited out the bad years with the knowledge that when the Cougars were good, winning the Pac-10 in 1997 and 2002, they were among the nation’s best.
This was not part of the deal. The absolute only silver lining in WSU’s forced relegation to mid-major status was that the Cougars would for the first time not have to survive as the smallest fish in a big pond. That their peers would face similar challenges. And that WSU’s superior tradition and experience at the top would set up the Cougars to be one of the lead schools in the rebuilt Pac-12.
That rebuilt Pac-12, a joint salvation project between WSU and Oregon State, formally kicked off for the Cougars on Saturday night. Now the Cougars are 0-1 all-time in a conference they built and look ready to settle into a familiar place in the standings.
How can fans accept this? How long can they continue to care?
The disingenuous, or possibly just naïve counterpoint would be to say that Fresno State might be good! They entered the game with a 3-1 record and, … I’m sorry, I can’t do it. This is not Pat Hill or Jeff Tedford or Kalen DeBoer’s Fresno State. This team came into the game an underdog to a WSU team that’s only offense is a kicker who finally seems to be getting over his yips.
Make no mistake, the conference hierarchy is being established now. WSU’s natural comparison and rival, Oregon State, isn’t dealing with any of this. The Beavers look great! Beyond that, they are rewriting the rules around talent acquisition in this new era.
WSU, which beat OSU 32-8 the last time they played, has no ability to manufacture explosive plays with wide receiver Tony Freeman out for the season.
OSU, on the other hand is headlined by freshman wide receiver Jessee Legree who is tied for the national lead in receiving touchdowns with Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the best college wide receiver since Randy Moss.
Legree has nine receiving touchdowns so far this season, which is three times as many as every WSU player combined.
This kid is obviously an anomaly, but he’s also a reason OSU is likely to finish near the top of the standings this first year in its new conference. His coaches will be able to tell donors and players that this is a program to invest in. Just look! “Come to Corvallis where you’ll play against mighty Boise State for glory and, if you’re good enough, get big money offers from the schools who passed on you out of high school.”
What is WSU supposed to say?
“Come to Pullman. We still don’t win many games, but you’ve got a great shot at playing time! And the fans won’t boo much longer, they’re almost hoarse.”
What is the solution? I don’t know, I don’t get paid as much as the people who are supposed to find the answers to that. Conference rival Colorado State fired its defensive coordinator in the middle of a game on Saturday, and I can’t imagine anything the Rams defense was doing was as embarrassing as those last five minutes of the WSU game.
But what I do feel qualified to say is there is no structural reason for WSU to look this pathetic. This should be getting easier. The Cougars are in a conference again.
After the original Pac-12 disbanded WSU was in the wilderness for two years. Each year the Cougars made a bowl game, one year reaching as high as No. 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
They set themselves up well to start this new era in pole position with rivals they chose. If they can’t give fans something to cheer for soon, they will win this new Pac-12 about as often as they won the old one.
