- Your Pac-12 Picks Guy Is Back and He's Got the Cougs
Welcome to the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 10-3-1 last week and am 25-23-2 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
If the adage is true – that good coaches win but great coaches cover – the rebuilt Pac-12 has several future Hall of Famers on its payroll.
The first month of the first season of the conference’s return to competition produced a 19-12-1 record against the point spread, according to TeamRankings.com, the wagering and analytics website.
But that mark includes a pair of .500 teams (Texas State and Utah State) and one complete flop: San Diego State’s struggles on the field (1-3) are exceeded only by the Aztecs’ 0-4 performance against the spread.
The other five teams are crushing the point spread as conference play begins this weekend.
Oregon State and first-year coach JaMarcus Shephard have covered in all four games – the betting public has not recognized OSU’s improvement – while Boise State, Fresno State and Washington State are all 3-1 and Colorado State is 2-1-1.
Those five teams are a combined 15-4-1.
The success is undoubtedly appreciated in some corners, but it won’t help the conference when the College Football Playoff selection committee determines which Group of Six team will receive the automatic bid.
That calculation will lean into the wins and losses of the teams involved in the race, in addition to a handful of performance metrics connected to the strength of the conference overall.
In that respect, the Pac-12 compares reasonably well to its primary competition.
It posted a 9-4 record against the other Group of Six leagues, including a 3-2 mark against the American and 3-0 against the Mountain West. And it stands as the highest-ranked Group of Six conference in the Sagarin computer ratings.
All of which means a Pac-12 champion with no more than two losses should be well positioned for a CFP bid.
To the picks …
Stanford (+131/2
) at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ACC Network
Comment: We picked the Cardinal last week to beat Georgia Tech outright (cha-CHING!) but do not like this situation one bit. The long trip, early kickoff, quality opponent and likelihood of rain add up to an easy call. Pick: Wake Forest
Michigan (-51/2
) at Minnesota
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: Based on how the teams fared last week, with Michigan losing at home to Iowa and Minnesota winning at Washington, the spread seems a tad high. But the Hotline won’t fall prey to recency bias. We expect the Wolverines to pull away late for the victory. Pick: Michigan
Cal (+21/2
) at UNLV
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The resistible force (Cal’s offense) meets the movable object (UNLV’s defense) in what could be a highly entertaining, although not well played, affair in Sin City. Both teams are desperate after splitting their first four games, but the Bears have better personnel. Pick: Cal
UTEP (+221/2
) at New Mexico
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on MW+
Comment: The Lobos are 4-0 against the point spread and have covered by an average of 161/2 points, according to TeamRankings.com. The trend is our friend. Pick: New Mexico
Oregon State (-61/2
) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: Perhaps the most interesting game of the opening week of conference play in the new Pac-12. If the Beavers truly belong on the top tier with Boise State, they will handle the defensively challenged Rams without much difficulty. For the moment, that’s exactly how we see it. Pick: Oregon State
BYU (-61/2
) at TCU
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Cougars had two weeks to prepare while the Horned Frogs were losing last weekend at UCF. Frankly, we’re surprised the spread isn’t closer to double digits. Bear Bachmeier should have his way with TCU’s pass defense. Pick: BYU
Washington (+91/2
) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Both teams are reeling, but we suspect the Trojans will have more difficulty recovering emotionally from yet another loss to Oregon. Also, this is strength on strength with USC’s offense matched against UW’s defense and vice versa. That suggests a close game throughout. Pick: Washington
Utah State (+20) at Boise State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: This feels like a letdown situation for the Broncos after their big win at Western Michigan. The Aggies don’t have enough offense to produce an upset, but they should hang around just long enough to cover that rather large number. Pick: Utah State
Fresno State (+2) at Washington State
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: This is tantamount to a must-win game for WSU (1-3) in order to make the bowl math work. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have started slowly in a handful of games and can’t afford to fall too far behind. The points are enticing, but the Cougars played well enough against Arizona to make us lean toward the home side. Pick: Washington State
Baylor (+4) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Sun Devils are home for the first time since the season opener, having lost at Texas A&M, beaten Kansas in London, then taken a week off to recover. As a result of the disruption, we expect a sluggish start and strong finish against an opponent that isn’t good enough to take full advantage of its chances. Pick: Arizona State
Texas State (-7) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The visitors opened as 41/2-point favorites, prompting a money flow strong enough to push the line to 7. And if that doesn’t frame the state of affairs for SDSU, nothing does. However, the Hotline will take the opportunity to zag while everyone else zigs. Pick: San Diego State
Cincinnati (+61/2
) at Arizona
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Bearcats are 4-0 but have yet to play a road game while the Wildcats are 3-1 with the loss coming on the road to a ranked opponent (BYU). Cincinnati has one of the best ground games in the country (270 yards per game). Arizona’s trouble against the run in Provo suggests a supreme challenge Saturday night – and the need for some fourth-quarter Noah Fifita heroics. Pick: Cincinnati
Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Michigan, Cal, New Mexico, Oregon State, BYU, USC, Boise State, Washington State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Arizona.
Five-star special: BYU. Nothing TCU has done thus far, particularly the loss to North Carolina, indicates the Horned Frogs can match the Cougars yard for yard and score for score for four quarters.
- We Got Picks, You Got Questions, and the Ducks Still Have Problems
Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 6-5-1 last week and am 15-20-1 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Oregon’s hotly anticipated duel with USC is one of two matchups of former Pac-12 teams Saturday in the late-afternoon TV window. The other will unfold 1,100 miles away on the Palouse, where Arizona visits Washington State in the first game of a home-and-home series.
The feline affair serves multiple purposes, allowing the Cougars to host a power conference opponent familiar to their fans and offering the Wildcats the chance to satisfy a Big 12 scheduling requirement.
The conference’s media rights agreement with ESPN and Fox stipulates that each team must play 10 games annually against Power Four opponents: nine in conference, one out of conference.
Because Arizona and WSU agreed to their series before the former officially left the Pac-12 for the Big 12 in August 2024, the Cougars qualify as a Power Four opponent. (The same standard applies to Oregon State, which faced Texas Tech and Houston earlier this season.)
But like so much else about the sport, the future of scheduling agreements between former Pac-12 schools now in different leagues is uncertain.
UCLA is under contract to play Cal for the rest of the decade and has a game with Utah in four years.
Arizona State has a two-year series with Stanford scheduled for the early 2030s.
And two ancient Northwest rivalries, the Apple Cup and Civil War, are in various stages of existence.
But that’s the extent of the nonconference inventory matching former Pac-12 teams, according to the website FBschedules.com, which tracks nonconferences series across the FBS and FCS.
A slew of games that seemingly make sense due to shared histories, geographic proximity and the location of alumni bases are not, at this point, lining future schedules of former Pac-12 peers.
Hopefully, that will change if the College Football Playoff takes the necessary steps to ensure quality nonconference inventory throughout the Power Four leagues.
The field is expected to double in size to 24 teams as early as next season. With that, the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC could implement standards designed to incentivize teams to craft rigorous nonconference schedules in much the same fashion the NCAA Tournament selection process rewards teams for high-level (e.g., Quadrant I) games outside of league play.
That could be problematic for Washington State, Oregon State and other schools in the rebuilt Pac-12. They would effectively be cast into purgatory as high-risk opponents (threats to win the game) that do not satisfy CFP scheduling requirements.
But for the 10 former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, a barrage of home-and-home series sprouting up in the late 2020s and early 2030s could prove beneficial.
There’s a fascinating alternative, too: NIL-driven matchups at neutral sites that mirror the multiteam events so popular in college basketball in November and December.
Why not match UCLA against Arizona State or Utah against Washington in Las Vegas – even better: make it a double-header – with sponsorship revenue going to each team’s NIL efforts?
A version of that model was put to use a few weeks ago, in fact.
Auburn was supposed to host Baylor but moved the game to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, allowing the Peach Bowl “to provide opportunities for promotional appearances for Auburn players promoting ticket sales and ancillary events,” according to ESPN’s report last year.
Admittedly, there are a barrage of hurdles. The game(s) would need a sponsor to offer the name, image and likeness opportunities. The schools would need availability within schedules that have limited flexibility. And the coaches would need a competitive reason to follow the more challenging path.
As with most other aspects of college football, it’s largely about willpower – about the schools committing to solutions that serve both their fans and the game writ large. College football is best when doubling down on regional roots, on historic connections. But the decision-makers must have a clearly defined incentive structure.
We aren’t confident. By the early 2030s, nonconference matchups between former Pac-12 schools could go the way of the Dodo.
If the CFP does the right thing once expansion becomes official, then perhaps the schools will embrace an opportunity to elevate the sport across the region.
To the Week 4 picks …
(All times Pacific)Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Absolutely nothing screams ACC football quite like Clemson playing in Berkeley on a Friday night at 10:30 p.m. Eastern … and the Bears rolling to a decisive victory. Pick: Cal
San Diego State (+3) at Toledo
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: Combine the long trip with the early kickoff and a quality opponent – not to mention SDSU’s woeful aerial game – and this has the ingredients for an intra-Group of Six wipeout. Pick: Toledo
UCLA (-11/2
) at Maryland
Kickoff: 10:30 a.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Hotline doesn’t plan to begin taking the Terps seriously if they win. But we definitely will stop taking the Bruins seriously if they lose. Pick: UCLA
Boise State (-7) at Western Michigan
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: Massive game in the Group of Six, with the winner assuming the pole position in the chase for the CFP automatic bid. Both teams struggled last week against inferior opponents: WMU edged Rice while Boise State had to beat back South Dakota. We suspect both had one eye on this showdown. Pick: Western Michigan
Iowa (+51/2
) at Michigan
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: First team to 14 wins. And covers. Pick: Iowa
Utah (-8) at Iowa State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Utah’s high-powered offense (47.3 points per game) hits the road for the first time and will encounter a well-drilled defense that should frustrate the Utes for two or three quarters before Byrd Ficklin blows the game open. Pick: Utah
Oklahoma State (+11/2
) at West Virginia
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Comment: How will West Virginia handle the afterglow from its upset of Virginia? Our hunch: Not well enough to suit coach Rich Rodriguez. The winner should be taken seriously as a Big 12 contender. Pick: Oklahoma State
Oregon (-3) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: The most significant regular-season West Coast matchup since Oregon and Washington tangled in the last year of the old Pac-12. The stakes are particularly high for USC coach Lincoln Riley’s job security, and for Oregon’s playoff prospects. We aren’t convinced the Trojans have improved enough on defense to finally slay their nemesis. Pick: Oregon
Texas A&M (+81/2
) at LSU
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: With both teams coming off losses, this effectively stands as a playoff-elimination game – and the sport is better for it. With a 24-team CFP, the drama would be cut in half. Pick: LSU
Arizona (-10) at Washington State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The line initially felt a bit high. But the more we drilled into WSU’s offensive offense, the easier it became to justify a double-digit spread. The Cougars have scored 17 points in two games against Power Four teams (Washington and Kansas State) that are comparable in personnel to the Wildcats. Pick: Arizona
Missouri (+6) at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 4:45 p.m. on SEC Network
Comment: If you haven’t seen MSU’s Kamario Taylor, this is a good opportunity to watch one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the country. And for that reason, the Bulldogs are the sleepiest of sleepers to make the playoff. Pick: Mississippi State
Oregon State (-101/2
) at UTEP
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on MW+
Comment: The Beavers are trending toward an upside surprise this season with transfer quarterback Braden Atkinson. The Miners are the Miners. Tough to envision anything other than a comfortable win for the visitors. Pick: Oregon State
Georgia Tech (-3) at Stanford
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This is Stanford’s best chance all season for a conference victory – the Yellow Jackets are struggling on offense and extremely vulnerable – but the total of 47.5 is more enticing than the spread. And in case there was any question, we like the Under. Pick: Stanford
Minnesota (+91/2
) at Washington
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Despite their well-documented struggles in Weeks 1 and 2, the Huskies should handle Minnesota with relative ease. If they don’t, well, it might be time for a red alert in Seattle. Pick: Washington
Straight-up winners: Cal, Toledo, UCLA, Boise State, Michigan, Utah, Oklahoma State, LSU, Oregon, Arizona, Mississippi State, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington
Five-star special: Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been ultra-impressive thus far. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy last week.
- Kirby Moore gets the keys, we see if the offense moves
Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 7-5 last week and am 32-28-2 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Arizona coach Brent Brennan was having none of it. The long trip to Morgantown? The unusual practice routine with a Thursday flight? The early kickoff Saturday morning? No, no, no.
“If you let that be an excuse,” he told reporters, “it will be … And we are not in the excuse-making business.”
But the Hotline is in the excuse-making business, if you view disrupted circadian rhythms and altered brain chemistry as excuses.
We don’t. We view 1,800-mile flights across three time zones and 9 a.m. body-clock kickoffs as legitimate competitive obstacles in the post-realignment world of college football.
It’s not easy for East Coast teams to fly west and play late, at 7:30 p.m. Pacific. But it’s far more challenging for teams in the Pacific Time Zone to travel east, lose three hours and play at 12 p.m.
The data agrees.
For context on the RichRod Bowl, with Arizona facing its former coach, Rich Rodriguez, the Hotline examined how the former Pac-12 teams have fared in 9 a.m. kickoffs.
Of course, there is some nuance to the situation.
Should we consider Utah’s results in early games played in the Eastern Time Zone? That’s 10 a.m. for the Utes.
And what about Pacific Time Zone teams playing early games in Texas, which is only halfway across the country?
You could slice and dice the logistics a half-dozen ways.
We chose to keep things simple: How have the former Pac-12 schools fared in conference road games that start at 9 a.m. Pacific – exactly the circumstance Arizona is facing this weekend.
And in case there is any confusion, we did not evaluate the results based on wins and losses. The Hotline is no place for moral rectitude. We examined the results from a wagering perspective: How frequently did the traveling teams cover the point spread?
(Arizona is favored by three points, by the way.)
The research found that Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado and BYU – yes, we included BYU – have covered the spread seven times, failed to cover the spread 14 times and pushed (tied) once.
Yep: The teams are 7-14-1 against the spread when playing at 9 a.m., or 33.3 percent.
Which is telling, because the spread is designed to create 50-50 outcomes.
Given that the sample size (22 games) isn’t tiny and spans two-and-a-half seasons, that success rate of 33.3 percent suggests playing at 9 a.m. is, well, difficult.
That doesn’t mean the Wildcats are doomed – that they won’t cover the spread or, ahem, win the game.
In fact, Arizona managed the logistics very well the last time it faced this situation: the 30-24 victory at Cincinnati last November. Of course, the kickoff was technically at 10 a.m. because Daylight Saving Time had ended two weeks earlier and Arizona, which skips the annual clock change, was only two hours behind Eastern Time.
Did that hour matter? Not as much as Noah Fifita’s efficient play from the pocket or Arizona’s 50-percent conversion rate on third down or Cincinnati’s two turnovers.
And if those dynamics are in play Saturday morning, the Wildcats should leave Morgantown with their fifth victory of the season despite their depleted receiver corps.
But that performance (covering the spread and winning the game) was unusual for the former Pac-12 teams. Body clock disruption is real, and we would not be surprised if the Wildcats are not themselves Saturday morning, at least in the first half.
The trend is your friend, and the trend is screaming from the rooftop: Take the points.
To the picks …
Iowa (+31/2
) at Washington
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Hawkeyes are making a long trip on a short week after playing Michigan and Ohio State back-to-back, and quarterback Hank Brown’s status is uncertain because of a bad shoulder. Advantage Huskies? Yes, for sure. This stands as the defining game of their season. We absolutely love the under (41.5). Pick: Washington
Washington State (+51/2
) at Utah State
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW
Comment: WSU first-year coach Kirby Moore has taken over play-calling duties, and we expect that to provide an immediate boost to what had been an inept unit. There are plenty of longer-term questions about the Cougars and their new coaching staff. But the defense is solid, and Utah State is flawed everywhere. Pick: Washington State
Iowa State (+10) at BYU
Kickoff: Friday at 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Cougars are without injured tailback LJ Martin but have their quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, plus a stout defense and enough moxie for two teams. Meanwhile, the Cyclones have a short week to recover from the emotional high of their win over West Virginia (45-42). One team is not like the other. Pick: BYU
Indiana (-71/2
) at Nebraska
Kickoff: 9 a.m on Fox
Comment: The Cornhuskers are undefeated but have played a soft schedule and, in no way, shape or form, are they ready for the Curt Cignetti smoke. Close early, not close late. Pick: Indiana
Arizona (-3) at West Virginia
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on TNT
Comment: The Wildcats shut down Cincinnati’s ground game last week, but the Mountaineers have a better scheme and a more dynamic quarterback in Michael Hawkins. Add the long flight, early kickoff and the absence of receiver Tre Spivey (broken foot) and this constitutes, by far, the greatest challenge for Arizona since the Week 2 trip to Provo. Pick: West Virginia
UCF (+91/2
) at Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN2
Comment: The Knights lost at Houston last weekend and are back on the road to face a talented host that had two weeks to prepare. The Cowboys’ competitive advantage is immense. Pick: Oklahoma State
Texas (-8) vs. Oklahoma (In Dallas)
Kickoff: 12:30 on ABC
Comment: The only reasons to side with the Sooners are the X factor present in every Red River showdown and their stout defense. All other components suggest a lopsided victory for the Longhorns. Pick: Texas
UCLA (+111/2
) at Oregon
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The Bruins have received a tad too much praise for their undefeated record considering all four victims have losing records. Yes, they are much improved under first-year coach Bob Chesney. But are they ready for Oregon’s personnel and the Autzen Stadium bedlam? Not in our view, especially with an offense that is overly reliant on the running game. We like the Ducks, who are expected to start Dylan Raiola at quarterback. Pick: Oregon
Virginia Tech (-10) at Cal
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: The Bears changed offensive play-callers in the middle of their loss to UNLV last weekend and have major issues with their defense and discipline. (They are one of the most penalized teams in the country.) Also, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is in concussion protocol. But this is far too many points for a road team traveling across the country, especially given the rosters have comparable talent. Pick: Cal
San Diego State (+141/2
) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network
Comment: Call this a funny-feeling pick. We don’t expect the Aztecs to win – they simply don’t have enough offense or a healthy enough roster – but it feels like the Beavers are due to experience some misfortune and unexpected resistance. Pick: San Diego State
USC (+11/2
) at Penn State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Two desperate blue bloods in a White Out game in Beaver Stadium?Yes, please. The Trojans are in must-win mode to remain on track for the playoff, while the Nittany Lions have lost two in a row (to Wisconsin and Northwestern). The hosts have a roster filled with transfers from Iowa State. The visitors have a roster filled with blue chippers. Pick: USC
Georgia (+2) at Alabama
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: One of the most anticipated games of the year with Alabama’s sensational quarterback, Keelon Russell, facing the mighty Bulldogs defense. If the College Football Playoff expands to 24 teams, showdowns like this would lose much of their do-or-die drama. Pick: Georgia
Hawaii (+201/2
) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on FS1
Comment: Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has turned over play-calling responsibility to offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo in the wake of a blowout home loss to Baylor. That could help, but the Sun Devils will benefit greatly from being back in their routine after the massive disruption caused by the London trip. Pick: Arizona State
Kansas (+15) at Utah
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Utes are particularly difficult to handle in night games at Rice-Eccles. To that advantage, add two weeks to prepare, their ultra-dynamic offense and a highly flawed opponent. This shouldn’t be close when the fourth quarter begins. Heck, it might not be close when the second quarter ends. Pick: Utah
Boise State (-61/2
) at Fresno State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: A huge game in the rebuilt Pac-12 between two title contenders and at least one CFP hopeful (Boise State). The Bulldogs’ defense is solid, but their offense is merely mediocre. And mediocre doesn’t work against the well-balanced Broncos, who should take control in the fourth quarter. Pick: Boise State
Straight-up winners: Washington, Washington State, BYU, Indiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Texas, Oregon State, USC, Georgia, Arizona State, Utah and Boise State
Five-star special: Oklahoma State. There is perhaps no tougher assignment in the sport than playing back-to-back road games, with the second game against a team coming off a bye. That is UCF’s fate against the Cowboys.
